Men's Sectional Previews: Northeast

By Christan Shirk

Third Round - Saturday, Nov. 22

Quarterfinals - Sunday, Nov. 23

Sectional Final, 1:00 pm ET

How they reached the Sweet 16

Messiah: Commonwealth Automatic Berth (AQ) | 1st Rnd: Bye | 2nd Rnd: W1-0 Morrisville St. (H)

Cortland State: Pool C at-large berth | 1st Rnd: W3-0 Neumann (N) | 2nd Rnd: W2-1 Rutgers-Newark (N)

Tufts: Pool C at-large berth | 1st Rnd: W2-1 Dickinson (N) | 2nd Rnd: W2-0 Wheaton (Mass.) (A)

Muhlenberg: Centennial Automatic Berth (AQ) | 1st Rnd: W4-0 Baruch (H) | 2nd Rnd: T0-0(2ot-pks) Catholic (H)

2014 Statistical Overview

Messiah: 20-0-1 (.976) | 3.09 GSA, 0.28 GAA (+2.81) | Avg. D-III OWP: .589 | Last Ten: 9-0-1

Cortland State: 16-4-1 (.786) | 2.37 GSA, 0.93 GAA (+1.44) | Avg. D-III OWP: .553 | Last Ten: 8-2-0

Tufts: 12-2-4 (.778) | 2.05 GSA, 0.58 GAA (+1.47) | Avg. D-III OWP: .564 | Last Ten: 7-1-2

Muhlenberg: 15-1-3 (.868) | 2.00 GSA, 0.55 GAA (+1.45) | Avg. D-III OWP: .552 | Last Ten: 8-1-1

Cortland State Season Review

Cortland State might be as close to a Cinderella as this year’s Sweet 16 has. Their squad’s lack of any prior tournament experience is only shared by Sectional mate Muhlenberg, and only Wartburg can also claim to have players who survived a sub-.500 season. Three years ago the Red Dragons slumped to a 3-8-5 mark, their lowest win total since 1958 when three wins was good enough for a .500 record (3-2-3). A new coach was installed the next season and only four freshmen from that forgettable 2011 season have lasted to be a part of this season’s success story. The new hire, Steve Axtell, Cortland’s goalkeeper just five years prior, has turned the program around in short order. Year one saw the Dragons over .500 after three years below. Year two saw them reach the SUNYAC final. And now in just his third year at the helm, Axtell’s team is in the NCAA Sweet 16.

He has rebuilt the squad through high school recruitment, transfers, and international students, the later two proving hit-or-miss until hitting the jackpot this year with a pair of Germans. Junior college transfers and/or international students account for five of Cortland’s starting eleven and five of the top six goal scorers and set-up men. The captain and midfield general is Irish junior college transfer Darren McCormack (4g, 5a) who marshals a very balanced attack that includes the aforementioned German duo of forward Ole Toepfer (10g, 6a) and midfielder Ole Daumann (5g, 4a) as well as junior midfielder Robby Reiser (8g, 3a). The defense is lead by senior Chris McBride, a 2011 survivor, and junior Sean Streb, one of this year’s junior college transfers.

Opening weekend, played without the services of Toepfer and Daumann, did not suggest that a Top 25 ranking and tournament run were in their future as the Dragons dropped a pair at St. Lawrence, 2-5, and Clarkson, 1-2. But with the Germans in the fold the following week, they romped Elmira 6-0 with Toepfer making an immediate impression, assisting on the opening goal and scoring the final two. That was followed by being the equal of well-regarded Montclair State for 90 minutes to make a 10th minute penalty kick conversion stand up for the 1-0 win that was suggestive of a team to keep an eye on. Four more shutout wins followed leading into a suddenly quite compelling SUNYAC match with undefeated 8th-ranked Oneonta State. Their rivals had the upper hand in the opening 45 to lead 2-1, but Cortland improved after the break to earn a 2-2 draw against a team that had only conceded once in eight games. Cortland would reel off five conference wins, including a crazy 4-3 overtime result against Brockport before picking up their first loss in seven weeks, 0-1 away at Geneseo. They responded by pounding Oswego and SUNY-Canton 4-0 and 8-1, respectively, in preparation for the SUNYAC tournament. A 1-0 overtime win versus Brockport that should have been settled in regulation set-up a rematch with Oneonta for the conference title. The sides traded early goals, but Oneonta proved to be superior and got the second half goal they deserved meaning Cortland would be a Pool C berth in the NCAA tournament. They brushed aside Neumann with ease in round one and looked to be doing the same to a much more formidable Rutgers-Newark side the next day, before a second half response from Newark cut the lead to 2-1. But the Dragons held their ground to book their place in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1993.

Tufts Season Review

Since hiring Coach Josh Shapiro before the 2010 season, Tufts had been a team on the rise. From a 2-10-2 season including going winless in conference the year before his hire, Shapiro immediately got the Jumbos back in the NESCAC playoffs with a sixth place finish and improved on that each year that followed. Year two brought a winning record and year three a home conference playoff game and NCAA berth before a somewhat disappointing plateau (or even a small step backwards) was reached last season. If Tufts was going to continue to climb in the conference and become relevant nationally, they’d have to improve on the offensive side of the game as their defense already proved to be up to the task in 2012 and 2013. So what better way to open the 2014 season than with a 8-0 thrashing of Mass-Boston. Four more wins in a row pointed to a promising season and a measuring stick game at Brandeis, ranked No. 4 in the nation, gave them the perfect opportunity make a statement of intent. And that seemed to be exactly what they would do as they had Brandeis on the back foot for much of the first half, but quality chances were in short supply and Brandeis’ quality showed in the second stanza as they sent Tufts home with a 2-0 loss.

That loss—which should have raised their profile, more than harmed it—started a four game winless streak that wasn’t nearly as bad as it sounds, but which served as a reminder that progress depended on improved creation and finishing of quality chances. MIT scored late on it’s only shot on target in a 1-1 draw. Fourteen shots, six on goal, didn’t yield a tally in a scoreless duel with Middlebury. And between those two results was a 1-1 tie in which they went toe-to-toe with NESCAC top dog Amherst. From there the Jumbos strung together five wins, outscoring opponents 12 to 1, gaining them the national attention the Brandeis and Amherst games should have already brought them. Ranked No. 18 in the nation with the NESCAC top seed clinched, they failed to close out a desperate Bowdoin who they had on the ropes 2-0 at halftime, a let down which continued right into their quarterfinal tilt where they surrendered twice in the opening half hour and their valiant comeback effort was let down by their inability to finish. All of a sudden a berth to the NCAA tournament actually seemed in doubt, but probably never was. Their focus returned for the opening weekend of the tournament as they ably dealt with two solid opponents in Dickinson and Wheaton (Mass.) to not just advance but truly earn their place in the Sweet 16.

Shapiro’s squad and starting line-up has a very healthy mix of classes for sustained success. The NESCAC’s top defense (0.58 GAA) is anchored by senior co-captain Sam Williams (4g, 1a) while junior Jason Kayne (5g, 5a) provides offensive creativity out of midfield with much help from fellow juniors Connor Brown (6g, 6a) and Rui Pinheiro (1g, 6a). But continued progress in the tournament may hinge on the production of the senior forwards Gus Santos (7g, 2a) and Max Hoppenot (3g, 2a).

Muhlenberg Season Review

Under 13-year head coach Sean Topping, the Mules have been a fairly steady, competent and competitive team, but his squads have been unable to match the program’s success in the mid-90’s when they reached the Sweet 16 three years out of four and advanced to the 1995 Final Four. The year before the current seniors stepped onto campus, Topping reached his only prior Sweet 16 when his Mules defeated favored Stevens in double overtime in the second round. Eight losses last year, the most ever under Topping, and missing the Centennial playoffs for a second straight season was the backdrop to the current campaign as the squad with its senior-laden starting line-up reconvened back in August. Improvement was needed on both sides of the ball and with the new senior core consisting mostly of returning starters, the bigger question than their ability to raise their game was whether the underclassmen being asked to fill out the line-up would be a marked improvement over the players lost to graduation. Well, regardless of who deserves credit, improvement has been significant all around. Goals conceded were cut nearly in half (0.55 GAA vs. 0.97) and goal scoring increased by over 60% (2.00 GSA vs. 1.23). But, due to a soft non-conference schedule, the extent of the improvement wasn’t always clear despite Muhlenberg reaching October without a loss. Stevens was still in their early-season funk when the Mules beat them 1-0 at home, and draws to Drew and Gettysburg gave reason to remain skeptical even if the scoreless draw with Drew could be chalked up to “one of those days” (shots 18-6, SOG 9-2).

October was ushered in with a “top of the table” clash with Franklin & Marshall, who at No. 3 in the national rankings was getting considerable more respect for their undefeated opening month. And as the Diplomats controlled play for much of the game, the rankings seemed to have gotten this one right. But defense was the name of the game and Muhlenberg was able to take the game to overtime scoreless before falling from the ranks of the unbeatens on a double-overtime winner for the hosts. It would be their last loss of the season as eight straight wins landed them the Centennial conference championship and a first round win in the NCAA tournament. But it wasn’t all positive as the Mules earned mixed grades in numerous victories. The defense leaked three goals in little more than twenty minutes to visiting Haverford, but a late comeback from 3-1 down demonstrated character and attacking ability. Allowing Johns Hopkins to fire 25 shots is disconcerting, but the defense allowed few quality chances and most importantly beat Hopkins in Baltimore for the first time since 1946! In a road battle with Dickinson they were second best, but found a way back after conceding with about 20 minutes to play. And being in a scoreless double-overtime game with sub-.500 Ursinus isn’t the way to build momentum heading into the post-season. Didn’t matter; two 1-0 wins later (neither against the upset F&M) and they had a conference title and ticket to dance. Baruch didn’t trouble them in round one, but 10-5-5 Catholic surprised everyone in round two by taking Muhlenberg the distance. In a contentious foul-fest with few shots, penalty kicks put Muhlenberg through after Catholic was denied a penalty kick for what seemed a clear takedown in the box.

The Mules defense is anchored by senior captain Bryan Attanasio playing in front of his capable if not spectacular classmate Danny Pinto in goal. The defense and the offense are bolstered by senior back Joe Adams whose long throw-ins have connected for five goals. The attack is led by senior midfielder Lance Dotzman (13g, 4a) and senior forward Travis Wantchekon (7g, 6a), the former collecting Centennial Player of the Year honors.

Seniors' 4-year Record (through Nov. 16)

Messiah: 85-2-5 (.951) overall | NCAA's ('11-'12-'13-'14): 11-1-1, Sweet 16 - '12-'13-'14, Elite 8 - '12-'13, Final Four - '12-'13, Champion - '12-'13

Cortland State: 39-27-8 (.581) overall | NCAA's ('14): 2-0-0, Sweet 16 - '14

Tufts: 38-15-12 (.677) overall | NCAA's ('12-'14): 2-1-0, Sweet 16 - '14

Muhlenberg: 46-20-5 (.683) overall | NCAA's ('14): 1-0-1, Sweet 16 - '14

Tournament Experience

Muhlenberg’s and Cortland State’s players had no tournament experience prior to last weekend. The last time Cortland was in the dance was six years ago under a different coaching staff. Muhlenberg made the tournament four years ago, the fourth time in Coach Topping tenure, and reached the Sweet 16 after first and second round exits the previous times. Tufts historically has the least tournament experience as this is just their fourth trip compared to 13, 16, and 26 for the others in the Sectional, but the Jumbos were here just two years ago even if it was a one-and-done affair, losing in 1-0 in overtime to Vassar. That experience added to a tougher opening weekend would give Tufts a slight edge in tournament experience versus Cortland and Muhlenberg, but the story here is that you have three squads of players that are in unchartered waters grouped with a Messiah juggernaut that has made the Final Four their home for the past decade and a half. Even with their upset ouster in their first game three years ago, Messiah’s roster can still boast as much tournament experience as any other in the nation.

Tournament Re-Matches

Messiah and Cortland have met just twice and not in tournament play. In 2006 Messiah defeated Cortland 3-1 at the Houghton opening weekend tournament and the following year Cortland came to Messiah’s first and last Falcon Classic tournament where they suffered a 7-0 spanking. On the other side of the Sectional, Tufts and Muhlenberg have never played each other in or out of the tournament. In fact, Tufts has never played any of the other teams in the Sectional.

In the event of a Cortland-Muhlenberg sectional final, the two have recent history having played opening weekend matches at Muhlenberg in 2011 and 2012, the hosts winning 3-2 and 2-0, respectively. A Messiah-Muhlenberg sectional final would provide the most historical match-up, the two being separated by just an hour and a half drive and having both been a part of the old Middle Atlantic Conference before the Centennial Conference breakaway. Despite the proximity, however, the two haven’t played since 2004, a 2-1 regular season home win for Messiah and year after they won 2-0 at Muhlenberg. In 23 total matches, Messiah leads the series 13 to 8 with two ties. Three of those encounters occurred in the NCAA tournament, Muhlenberg coming out on top twice. In their 1992 first round match, Messiah won 1-0 with Muhlenberg getting revenge three years later with a 1-0 triple-overtime win in the second round. Finally, in 1997 Muhlenberg edged Messiah again by the same 1-0 scoreline in a second round match.

Why they will advance to the Final Four

Messiah: It’s become unnecessary to list Messiah's unparalleled tournament record since 2000, hasn't it? Simply put they are the best, especially at tournament time. No team in the history of Division III soccer has ever so consistently lived up to expectations, and there is absolutely no reason to think that one of the best senior classes leading possibly best overall squad in their storied history will be unable to add to that legacy. This senior class will not be the first in a decade to leave with less than three rings on their fingers. And it’s not that their history is going to win it for them. This is one of the most talented squads assembled in D-III history. And they boast the best combination of offensive firepower and defensive soundness in the nation with the second best goal scoring average and second best (tied) goals allowed average in the Sweet 16. Moreover, they are the deepest team with the least drop off when going to their bench, which they do consistently for more minutes than anyone else and that keeps their first squad stars fresh while opponents tire. One way or another they win and keep on winning and will do so again, and again, this weekend.

Cortland State: While Messiah carries an immeasurable weight of expectations, Cortland State will win exactly because they are not expected to.  Entering the season it’s doubtful the Final Four was considered a realistic expectation even by Cortland themselves, so they have nothing to lose having already achieved their goals in rebuilding from that 3-8-5 season just three years ago. That’s not to say given the opportunity to make this season even more special, they won’t be motivated and focused to do so. They just get to do so without the pressure that can lead to mistakes and underperformance. And why wouldn’t they give everything to write their names in the Cortland history books, becoming the first Red Dragons squad to match the achievements of the 1977, 1978 and 1982 teams. They’ve not only averaged almost two and a half goals per game, but have scored on the nation’s fourth best defense (Oneonta, 0.42 GAA) three times in two games. They know how to react to falling behind to a top team with a stellar defense as all three goals against Oneonta erased 1-goal deficits, something they did twice in their 4-3 win over Brockport State as well. They can handle the fatigue and pressure of overtime, having gone 3-0-1 in extra time matches this season. And finally, Robby Reiser and Ole Toepfer have proven to be big game players who score when the team needs it most. Second half equalizer against Oneonta in the regular season: Reiser. Overtime game-winner versus Brockport State: Toepfer. First half equalizer in SUNYAC final: Reiser. First two goals in the NCAA tournament: Toepfer and Reiser. Both goals against Rutgers-Newark to reach the Sweet 16: Toepfer. These two proven goal scorers and Cortland State will shock Messiah Saturday and, with the extra time to try to come down off that high and get refocused, the Dragons feet will touch the ground just enough to handle Sunday’s good but less formidable opponent.

Tufts: Tufts boasts the stingiest defense (0.58 GAA) and highest scoring offense (2.17 GSA) out of arguably the nation’s best conference. A team that can say that is a team that can win any game against any opponent in the nation if they play to their potential. While Tufts’ consistency in doing just that has been questioned at times, they showed opening weekend that they came to take care of business in the tournament. They faced a tougher pair of opponents (and on the road) to reach the Sectional then the other three and impressed in achieving both wins. And that may be a reflection of the fact that by adding title-contender Brandeis to an already tough NESCAC slate, Tufts’ regular season did more to prepare them for the tournament than any other team in the Sectional. Against Muhlenberg, they will match the hosts defensively, but will have the edge offensively and will have a patient confidence that the better chances they are creating will eventually result in the game-winner. Against Cortland, the Jumbos' experience and battle-testing coming out of the NESCAC versus the SUNYAC will show. Their defense is not going to concede move than a goal, if that, and playing against one of the weakest defenses in the Sweet 16 will be good news for their offense which will score a pair just as they did against Dickinson and Wheaton (Mass.), teams with just as good or better defenses as Cortland. Against Messiah, they have enough size to impose some physicality to keep Messiah from getting into a rhythm and feeling comfortable while also having the midfield creativity to make Messiah work harder than they are used to when not in possession. The Jumbos will display more patience than the Falcons who have not been immune to letting the pressure of failing to score get to them and produce errors from forcing things and trying do too much. While the Falcon frustration builds in counterproductive ways, the Jumbos will make one of their few chances count for the win.

Muhlenberg: A one-loss team in the Sweet 16 is a team that can avoid that second loss for another week. And it’s not like they played a soft schedule—they play in the Centennial, one of the top conferences in the nation. And they were less than five minutes from going undefeated in the Centennial regular season to go along with their pair of playoff wins for the conference title. Defense wins championships and the Mules can play D, with a 0.55 GAA that would look even better if those inexplicable 20 minutes in which they conceded three to Haverford could be erased. And tournament games tend to be tighter and lower scoring than most teams are used to during the regular season, but Muhlenberg is well acquainted with 1-goal games having played 13 of them this season, posting a 10-1-2 record in those games. So the Mules aren’t going to get nervous or frustrated or impatient in the tight games that can be expected. Their starting line-up is senior-laden which adds to the sense that this team will keep its composure no matter what twists and turns may be thrown their way. Buoyed by the home crowd support, Muhlenberg will edge Tufts in a somewhat dour defensive battle. In a sectional final with Messiah, they’ll play conservatively with a defense-first approach, looking to keep Messiah off-balance and out of rhythm with energetic, physical play which will be facilitated by their smaller field size. The longer they can keep the game scoreless the more Messiah feels the pressure and starts playing nervous leading to mistakes. Being effective at keeping Messiah off the scoreboard, Wantchekon and Dotzman will not need many chances to bag the game-winner given their efficiency all season long.

Comments or feedback for the author?  E-mail Christan Shirk.