Men's Semifinal 2 Preview

By D3soccer.com Contributor and Staff

NCAA Division III Men's Soccer - National Semifinal 2

Friday, December 4 — 7:30 pm CT No. 17  Loras (17-4-1) vs. No. 3  Calvin (24-0-1)

How they reached the Final Four

2015 Statistical Overview

Loras Season Review

The fact that the Duhawks were disappointed last year with only a Sweet 16 run is a measure of the accomplishments (and expectations) in Loras-ville. A very fast 4-0-1 start with strong wins over the likes of UW-Oshkosh, St. Olaf, Wheaton (Ill.) and Chicago put Loras in the conversation as perhaps the No. 1 team in the country. Beating Wheaton is always big, but eyes really turned when the Duhawks pasted an undefeated Chicago team 4-0. However, an away loss at DePauw followed immediately by a loss to Division 1 Western Illinois derailed Loras’ momentum, and two games later they dropped a home game to a very good UW-Whitewater team 2-1. The late-September swoon left the Duhawks with a very un-Loras-like 5-3-1 record (counting the Div. I loss). Questions surfaced about the team's overall talent level compared to recent seasons and the increasingly direct playing style, but nine wins in their next ten—the loss being a non-conference game at St. Thomas—landed the Duhawks the IIAC regular season and tournament championships, their ninth and seventh, respectively, in the last eleven years.

With the conference's automatic berth to the NCAA tournament and a first round bye to boot—even if not fully deserved, Loras was sitting exactly where they were expected to be regardless of that 2-3-1 early season stretch and the doubts it raised. The Duhawks opened NCAA play after their bye with a convincing 3-1 win over Carthage and was awarded the hosting privileges for the Midwest Sectional where a re-match with DePauw awaited. In an advanced game-time to beat the arriving snow storm, the Duhawks wasted no time getting their revenge, scoring in the third minute and controlling the match from start to finish—a 75th minute penalty kick for DePauw notwithstanding—for the 2-1 win. In a postponed re-match with Wheaton, fortunate survivors of a snowy battle with St. Olaf, the Duhawks and Thunder traded second half goals before Loras booked their place in Kansas City with a 98th minute overtime tally reminiscent of their 2007 second round overtime Rock Bowl win versus Wheaton en route to their first-ever Final Four.

Led by now seven-time IIAC Coach of the Year, Dan Rothert, Loras wears down opponents with a high-energy, smothering defensive approach called “the swarm” and a substitution system where 20 or more players will see the field. In possession, the Duhawks prefer to advance the ball into the attacking third as fast as possible rather than building up an attack with patient passing out of the back. Though more direct in approach than just a few seasons ago when All-American Kevin Cavers pulled the strings in midfield, it suits the current personnel and has proven effective—it's gotten them back to the Final Four, hasn't it? Loras often wins comfortably and are almost never out of a game. Their chances of winning any close game late are enhanced by their aggressive style and usually fresher legs. Key offensive players include IIAC Defensive Player of the Year, Jorge Simon, a senior midfielder who also is the team’s points leader (8g, 3a); Alex Bradley, a junior attacking midfielder (6g, 5a); and Johnny Rummelhart, a senior forward returning from injury (5g, 4a). Nine players have scored three or more goals. Top defenders include senior back Justin Giacotto and senior sweeper—yes, Loras plays with a sweeper—Sam Koenig.

Calvin Season Review

Calvin’s biggest unknown coming into 2015 was how they would replace the production of Travis Vegter (23g, 10a) in attack. And the opening weekend only added to those concerns, with Calvin drawing a blank against Endicott and only scoring once against Gordon. But the defense looked airtight, and as the season rolled along Calvin’s offense rounded into form. Win followed win until it became increasingly difficult to ignore the Knights even if finding their strength of schedule suspect. Normally Calvin has at least Hope to challenge them in-conference while usually managing some top competition in their limited—a 14-game home-and-away MIAA schedule leaves precious few open dates—non-conference slate (Ohio Wesleyan, Wheaton in 2014; Ohio Wesleyan, Kenyon, Loras in 2013; Dominican, Wheaton in 2012; Rochester, Dominican, Wheaton in 2011; Wheaton in 2010). Alas, Hope greatly underperformed in 2015 and there were no Ohio Wesleyan's or Wheaton's on the agenda, meaning that Calvin was not truly tested after their opening weekend in New England.

A "wait and see" attitude towards the undefeated Knights was prevalent as the season progressed, and many remained skeptical of Calvin's undefeated mark even as it rose to 20-0-1 on the season—41 straight undefeated dating back to last season—following their MIAA tournament final win. The question—soon to be answered—was "How would Calvin reacts when they run into somebody good in November?” With the NCAA committee also not convinced, the Knights were sent on the road in the tournament for a date with host Ohio Wesleyan if Mount Aloysius could be dispatched in round one. A dominating but narrow 1-0 win set up a rematch of the 2011 national championship game and a second-round game in 2014 that went to penalties. Ohio Wesleyan shell-shocked the Knights with an early goal, and Calvin could have been three goals and a man down as they struggled to play their style and keep their composure. It looked like Calvin’s soft schedule was doing them in and the doubters were right, but whatever Coach Souders said at halftime worked, as Calvin turned the screws during the middle of the second half and scored twice in quick succession with 20 minutes remaining for the win. In the Sectional at Kenyon, the Knights were tasked with knocking off the two teams that spent the most time at No. 1 in the national rankings in 2015. Despite seeming to be the inferior side for stretches against both Franklin & Marshall and the hosts the next day, in each game Calvin found a way hang around and score the game's lone goal while keeping two successful attacking squads from finding the back of the net, thanks to both good defending and even better goaltending. OWU, F&M, Kenyon—never minding the critics, Calvin earned their way into the Final Four.

Calvin features a balanced attack and a dominant defense (20 shutouts) led by the MIAA’s most valuable player in centerback Nick Groenewold. The Knights like to play in the wide areas, getting down the flanks before providing purposeful, dangerous services into the middle—whether driven passes or cutback from the endline—that often provide easy tap-ins for the front men. Sophmore midfielder Mitch Stark (8g, 16a) may do this as well as anyone with junior midfielder Stephan Hooker (12g, 6a) among the beneficiaries. Senior forward Taylor Prius (9g, 12a) has also excelled as both provider and timely finisher with five game-winners. The other aspect of Calvin’s game is set pieces. Groenewold and the backs provide towering height to attack headers, and freshman Trent Vegter has a long throw that can reach the penalty spot on a rope. Great defense, dangerous attack, and strength on set pieces? It's been a winning formula thus far and has the Knights back in the Final Four.

Head Coaches

Seniors' 4-year Record (through Nov. 23)

Players to Watch

Loras: M Jorge Simon (Sr.) – 8g, 3a (IIAC Def. POY) | F Alex Bradley (Jr.) – 6g, 6a, 5 GWG (1st Team All-IIAC, 2014 NSCAA 3rd Team All-Region) | F Johnny Rummelhart (Sr.) – 6g, 5a (2x 1st Team All-IIAC, 2013 NSCAA 2nd Team All-Region) | D Justin Giacotto (Sr.) – 3g, 5a (1st Team All-IIAC) | M Bryan Irwin (Sr.) – 3g, 3a (1st Team All-IIAC)

Calvin: D Nick Groenewold (Sr.) – 7g, 3a, 3 GWG (MIAA MVP, 2x 1st Team All-MIAA) | GK Niko Giantsopoulos – 17 ShO, 0.22 GAA, 0.896 Sv. Pct. (3x 1st Team All-MIAA, 2014 3rd Team NSCAA All-American) | F Taylor Pruis (Sr.) – 9g, 12a, 5 GWG (3x 1st Team All-MIAA, 2014 1st Team All- Region) | M Stephan Hooker (Jr.) – 12g, 6a, 3 GWG (2x 1st Team All-MIAA) | M Mitch Stark (So.) – 8g, 16a (2nd Team All-MIAA)

Analysis

Loras does a lot of things differently from the norm and, as such, teams facing them for the first time may be off-balanced as they try to come to grips with all the new things being thrown at them. The “swarm”, the sweeper, the succession of substitutions—none are secrets, but it can be hard to properly prepare for them, and adjusting and adapting on the fly can be challenging—and costly—when early nerves may already be an issue due to the magnitude of the do-or-die game. Will Calvin be able to stay composed and error-free while they come to terms with such a different opponent? Will they find a way—and how long will it take—to play their game and do the things that have made them effective?

There’s no way to predict that, but there are some aspects to Calvin’s playing style that would seem to negate, or at least minimize, some of the advantages Loras’ playing style often affords them. The Duhawks like to press very high, harrying the opposition into turnovers in Loras’ attacking third—the “swarm”—but the Knights don’t try to pass the ball around and build up play out of the back. Their backs don’t try to be cute with the ball, rather looking to quickly spray the ball out wide and up the sidelines. In theory, this should mean less turnovers in dangerous areas for Loras to try to immediately capitalize upon. But those outlet passes will have to be quicker than usual, and the Knights will be challenged to choose the correct target and deliver an accurate pass.

From there, Calvin likes to get down the flanks and into the final third before serving the ball back into the middle. With the Knights’ primary route of attack being their wingers taking on defenders out wide, the unusual presence of a sweeper may have less impact on them than it does on Loras. What does the sweeper do when his outside backs get beat or are in trouble? Does he get drawn out wide to provide cover, leaving more space in the middle for Calvin’s goal scorers to make their runs? Or does he stay home to defend against the dangerous crosses and cutbacks that the Knights so often score off? Will indecision leave him in no man’s land? What approach will Coach Rothert instruct his sweeper to take? It will be interesting to see this dynamic play out both in strategy and in execution.

It’s not clear how much the man-marking that Loras employs would trouble Calvin as they expect their wingers to go one-on-one against outside backs, however, the task for the players looking to get on the end of the centering passes will be different than when attacking a more zonal defense.

The Duhawks’ heavy substitution patterns contrast with the Knights’ short bench. While Loras may go about 20 deep, Calvin will basically utilize just 14 or 15 guys. Combined with the Duhawks’ high-pressure, this could become a Loras advantage as the game wears on. The effect could be more pronounced on the second day of back-to-back play, while minimized on the first day with adrenaline and—if needed—a never-say-die survivalist attitude able to compensate for Calvin.

Both teams are big and physical, so maybe no advantage either way. And along with that, both sides are strong on set pieces and both have very long throw-ins. Do they cancel each other out in this department? Maybe. Both teams are probably somewhat accustomed to having the size advantage over their opponents, so whichever team best handles facing someone who can match them on set pieces might gain an advantage—maybe even score a crucial goal as a result.

Loras is direct, wanting to get the ball into the attacking third as quickly as possible. That means very little build-up in the back and a willingness—desire even—to play long balls forward even though their line-up has some talent to possess the ball. Can Calvin deal with the urgency, energy, and directness of the Duhawk attack? The Knights have a combination of speed and size and an ability to play physical, disruptive defense. They also have one of the nation’s best goalkeepers in Niko Giantsopoulos (.912 Sv. Pct., 0.20 GAA). Their stingy defense whose nation-leading statistics (0.20 GAA, 80% shutout percentage, 6.7 shots allowed avg., 2.3 SOG avg.) could be dismissed as helped by a soft schedule, kept they two clean sheets last weekend against teams that scored at a pace similar to Loras this season. However, the task will be a little different with the fresher legs Loras is able to maintain with the amount of substituting they do.

When thinking of benches, Loras would immediately be thought to have the advantage. And the Duhawks depth and ability to wear opponents down by getting all that depth onto the field is a clear advantage for them. The minimal drop-off and production when the reserves are in doubles that advantage. But while their second leading scorer (7g) is a substitute as is their fifth point earner (5g, 3a), the Knights also get production from their top reserves to the tune of 7g, 2a and 5g, 4a when coming off the bench.

Could either team carry a mental edge into the game? Who will be more confident and play with less fear? The Duhawks have never seemed to lack for self-belief and they’ve been in control of their tournament games much more than Calvin has, so that can only bolster their confidence heading into this weekend. But while the Knights’ have only narrowly advanced to this point, they have run the gauntlet (OWU, F&M, Kenyon) on the road and come out on top, so that should have them pumped and believing they can face all comers.

How do these teams do when having to play from behind? How well can each team protect a lead?Can either team afford to concede the first goal? Well, they only time Calvin has only trailed all season was in round two to Ohio Wesleyan. Their excellent second half response got them the win, but for the 35+ minutes between the goal and halftime they were extremely fortunate not to have gone down by two or three. Loras has trailed in five games, losing all but once. They conceded the game’s first goal four times, equalizing three times but still losing twice. Turned around, Loras has conceded an equalizer three times, going on the win two and lose one. Calvin has not conceded a game-tying goal all season.

Loras loves their Rock Bowl and it’s a venue that seems well suited to their brand of soccer. It’s certainly a home field advantage for a variety of reasons, but now the Duhawks must win away from home to claim the ultimate prize. Can they do it? Calvin has already proven it can take its show on the road against the best and come out on top. And the huge, quality grass fields at the Final Four would seem better suited to Calvin’s style of play than Loras’.

Loras has lost all four previous times at this stage and some of the current squad were involved in the 2013 and even the 2012 semifinal losses. Does that serve as extra motivation to get over the hump or as fertile ground for doubt and fatalism? Surely the former heading into the game; the true test, however, would come if they were to go down a goal. The past would seem less relevant to the Calvin squad, none of whom were part of the Knights’ last deep run—that to the title game in 2011. With a new coach at the helm since then, it just feels like maybe there’s less context to factor in positively or negatively for the Calvin team.

On paper, Calvin would seem to have the edge in this match. Their defense is one of the best in the nation and very hard to beat and Loras’ best chances to score might be off of a set-piece or defensive miscue. Loras on the other has not had as dependable a defense, only posting nine shutouts (out of 22 games) and you have to go back to the second week of the season for the last time they blanked a quality side. Calvin could conceivably score on Loras in one of four ways: set pieces, a quick counter-attack with Loras pressing too high, a winger getting to the endline and cutting it back for a tap-in, and a mistake in the back from Loras.

But the game isn’t played on paper. Calvin will have to avoid an opening half like against Ohio Wesleyan, as probability says they don’t survive another lackluster 45 minutes with Loras sure to pounce and punish the Knights if they are off their game or get rattled. Even if the Duhawks can’t jump on top early and follow up with a knock-out punch, they will look to wear down Knights with their deep bench to tilt the game in their favor in the final half hour.

If both team are at their best it should be a great match, intriguing for both the contrasts and similarities in the two sides.

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