Women's Semifinal 1 Preview

By D3soccer.com Contributor and Staff

NCAA Division III Women's Soccer - National Semifinal 1

Friday, December 4 — 11:00 am CT No. 2  Messiah (22-0-2) vs. No. 4  Washington U. (20-2-0)

How they reached the Final Four

2015 Statistical Overview

Messiah Season Review

Having played in the previous 15 NCAA Tournaments reaching ten Final Fours and winning five national titles, the expectations at the outset of every season are for the Messiah women to make another Final Four appearance. However, this season came on the heels of having failed to do so the last two years. After a 3-0 start, the Falcons ran into another stalwart in William Smith and had to settle for a 1-1 draw on the road. From there Messiah rang up twelve straight shutouts in dominating fashion, the only hiccup being a scoreless draw with Farmingdale State despite a 28-5 shot advantage (SOG 13-2). Less than five minutes from extending that streak, they finally conceded again, over 20 hours since the William Smith tally. Falcons finished as the Commonwealth champions and entered the NCAA tournament 18-0-2 having allowing just three goals all season against 83 scored.

Is it an imposing offense or a stingy defense? The obvious answer is that it is both and it has been on full display in the Falcons overwhelming run to the Final Four the past two weekends. Messiah earned their spot in the Sweet Sixteen with shutouts of Staten Island (6-0) and No. 20 Montclair State (3-0). They were just as impressive in the Sectional with a 3-0 win over No. 18 Rowan followed up by a 5-0 dismantling of No. 16 Swarthmore. Incredibly, the Falcons improved their offensive and defensive averages in the four tournament matches which included three Top 25 opponents as they fired 121 shots with 56 on goal while allowing just 6 and 4, respectively, collecting four more shutouts as they outscored their opponents 17-0.

Messiah's run of 16 straight tournament appearances—and now eleven Final Fours—coincides precisely with the tenure of head coach Scott Frey who stands as the winningest NCAA soccer coach (by percentage) of all-time. Defensively, the Falcons have never been better, and the offense is very close to matching the high-octane squads of 2008-2010. The attack is led by two-time D3soccer.com All-American senior Nikki Elsaesser (31g, 15a) and junior Marisa Weaver (15g, 4a), each with 7 game-winning goals, supported by senior midfielder Holly Burgard (12g, 10a). As with every championship caliber team, Messiah is strong in midfield transition thanks to the efforts of senior central midfielder Macaulay Soto (1g, 4a). Junior defender Kayla Deckert leads a backline that allows a mere 3 shots per game which goalkeeper Audra Larson has capably dealt with (.919 Sv. Pct.) in helping the Falcons to 21 shutouts, one short of tying the NCAA record, while raising her NCAA record career shutout total to 68.

Washington U. Season Review

Washington University is used to the post-season, but after an early exit in the first round last season and the loss of D3soccer.com Midfielder of the Year Lillie Toaspern to graduation, the Bears needed to re-focus their goals for a high finish in 2015. The season started slowly with a win over Cal Lutheran but also with a 2-1 loss to Claremont-Mudd-Scripps from an early trip to California. They bounced back with a 2-1 win over Wartburg—who they'd see again in the Sweet 16—to kick off a 10-game winning streak. Included in that run were matches with an increasingly powerful Illinois Wesleyan squad fresh off a Final Four appearance in 2014 and the only nemesis the Bears have in Wheaton (Ill.)—in the 25 years of their rivalry, the Bears are 4-13-2 against the Thunder. A 1-0 home win over then-No. 3 Illinois Wesleyan and a 3-1 road win over a then-ranked Wheaton gave Washington U. the confidence that they can beat all comers.

A 1-0 overtime conference loss to also-ranked Brandeis broke their win streak before finishing the regular season with four shutout wins, including Top 25 tilts against Carnegie Mellon and Chicago, to claim a share of the UAA title and the automatic berth to the NCAA tournament. The Bears' run of eight shutouts in their final nine games would continue in NCAA play when they travelled to Denison for the opening rounds and took down York (Pa.) and the hosts, 4-0 and 1-0, respectively. Hosting their sectional, Washington advanced to the Final Four by defeating Wartburg for the second time and getting past UW-Whitewater in the Elite 8 on an own goal. Both wins came in a grind-it-out fashion that has typified the Bears' season marked by large advantages in shots and shots on goal but a slim 1-0 margin on the scoreboard.

In his eighth year, head coach Jim Conlon has led a program that has seen 10 straight years of NCAA post-season action. Elite 8 runs in 2012 and 2103 give the juniors and especially the seniors valuable tournament experience. The current squad is as prolific in front of goal as some past editions, owing their success more to strong midfield play and a stingy defense. The defense ranks seventh nationally with a 0.31 GAA which gives the Bears a chance of winning every match, no matter how strong the opponent. Senior center back Sam Ezratty anchors the backline that includes All-UAA junior Hannah Rosenberg, but the star is junior goalkeeper Lizzy Crist whose .911 save percentage ranks seventh in the nation. Senior midfielder Olivia Lillegraven, named UAA MVP, does it all for the Bears on both sides of the ball, leading the team with 12 goals—6 game-winners—and 5 assists. Up top junior Katie Chandler has heated up in the past month with a goal or an assist in the six games preceding the Elite 8, including two overtime game-winners, the round two game-winner, and the assist on the Sweet 16 game-winner—all 1-0 wins.

Head Coaches

Seniors' 4-year Record (through Nov. 15)

Players to Watch

Messiah: F Nikki Elsaesser (Sr.) – 31g 15a, 7 GWG (3x Commonwealth Off. POY, 2x D3soccer.com All-American, 2014 1st Team NSCAA All-Region) | F Marisa Weaver (Jr.) – 15g,, 4a, 7 GWG (2x All-Commonwealth, 2014 2nd Team NSCAA All-Region) | M Macaulay Soto (Sr.) 1g 4a, 1 GWG (2x Commonwealth Def. POY, 2014 2nd Team D3soccer.com All-American, 2014 1st Team NSCAA All-Region) | GK Audra Larson (Sr.) – .919 Sv. Pct., 0.14 GAA, 12 ShO (2x All-Commonwealth, 2014 3rd Team NSCAA All-Region)

Washington U.: M Olivia Lillegraven (Sr.) – 12g, 5a, 6 GWG (UAA MVP) | D Hannah Rosenberg (Jr.) - 1g, 4a, 1 GWG (1st Team All-UAA) | GK Lizzy Crist (Jr.) – .911 Sv. Pct., 0.37 GAA, 11 ShO (1st Team All-UAA, 2014 2nd Team NSCAA All-Region) | F Katie Chandler (Jr.) – 7g, 3a, 5 GWG (1st Team All-UAA, 2014 1st Team NSCAA All-Region)

Analysis

This is will be only the second all time meeting between the Bears and the Falcons who surprisingly have not met a few more times given their mutual tournament success. The only time the Falcons and Bears met on the pitch was the 2009 NCAA championship game, a 1-0 Messiah victory.

Messiah sports a mind boggling 44-0-5 record over the last two seasons (they lost a shootout to Lynchburg in the Sectional Final last year), the third longest unbeaten streak all-time in Division III women's soccer (they also own the longest at 73 games). They rank in the top seven nationally in every meaningful offensive and defensive statistic. They have nationally and regionally recognized players at every level of their formation. Only three matches have been competitive on the scoreboard: an early season 1-1 draw with No. 3 William Smith; a 0-0 draw with Farmingdale State and a 1-0 win over Arcadia in the conference championship match. In the latter two contests the Falcons had most of the play with large advantages in shots, shots on goal and corners. Even against highly-ranked William Smith they carried the bulk of the attack with 15-7, 9-4 and 10-2 advantages in shots, shots on goal and corners, respectively.

With all due respect to Centre and Williams, with the way the brackets fell many may view this as the true national championship game. It will take a supreme effort to stop the Falcons from advancing to the championship game and Washington U. looks to be one of the very few teams this year that may be able to pull it off. They have experience, a competitive roster, and a top keeper. They have been battle tested and acquired confidence from successfully navigating through what may have been the nation's most difficult schedule with top-level non-conference opponents added to the highly competitive UAA slate. They do not have a high-flying offense but they have been tenacious on defense allowing just seven goals all season and only one in their last thirteen contests. So while Wash. U. not blowing teams out and margins of victory are minimal, what matters is they are 22-2-0 overall with a 4-0-0 mark in the tournament and are one of just four teams still playing for the championship.

To win without going to a penalty kick shootout, Washington U. will have to find a way to keep Messiah off the board—something that has been accomplished only once all season. They will need to absorb what will likely be significant offensive pressure. If they do concede, their only realistic path to the championship will be from the mark as the Bears have been challenged to generate multiple goals in a match this year while it has been nearly impossible to get even one past the Falcons. If the game were to go to a shootout, both teams fared poorly in their last shootout experience, Messiah having three shots saved by the Lynchburg goalkeeper in their Elite 8 elimination last year while Washington U. similarly saw three of their effort blocked by Capital's keeper in their 2013 Elite 8 match.

It will take Wash U.'s best effort of the season, perhaps coupled with an inopportunely timed off-day by Messiah, but the Bears are one of the few teams (along with William Smith, Illinois Wesleyan, and Trinity) who could be expected to eliminate the Falcons.

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