Men's Semifinal 2 Preview

NCAA Division III Men's Soccer - National Semifinal 2

Friday, December 2 — 1:30 pm ET  Brandeis (13-5-4) vs. No. 6  Calvin (22-2-0)

How they reached the Final Four

2016 Statistical Overview

Head Coaches

Seniors' 4-year Record (through Nov. 20)

Analysis

By Ryan Harmanis

Friday’s second semifinal includes two programs looking to finally get over the hump. Calvin is playing in its fourth Final Four since 2009, but has yet to win a title. Brandeis was a national powerhouse and champion in the 1980s, and has been very good in the 21st century, but this is the Judges’ first real crack at a title in three decades. As in the first game, these teams play a similar style that should lend itself to an attractive game with many scoring chances and (hopefully) goals.

Calvin, in particular, seems ready to make the jump from contender to champion. The Knights were a great team last year, but I was a little disappointed in their showing at the Final Four. Once they fell behind Loras, Calvin never really looked like scoring. That they’ve returned to the Final Four this quickly, despite losing multiple All-Americans, is a testament to the culture and program the Knights have built. And even though the schedule was below par again, Calvin put to bed any doubts by beating four straight Top 25 teams en route to Salem. Still, I wonder if there’s any mental scarring for a program that has come this close so often. To finally win a title, Calvin will have to overcome the ghosts of Final Fours past.

For Brandeis, on the other hand, this year is a validation of the great teams Coach Coven has put out for the last few years. Brandeis has been good enough to make the final weekend annually, but couldn’t seem to get past NESCAC roadblocks. This year, despite a rough start and numerous injuries, the Judges hit their stride and have displayed a wonderful flexibility in games. That new characteristic allowed the Judges to grind out a game against Amherst in the Sweet Sixteen before using a bit of shock-and-awe to KO Rutgers-Newark in the Elite Eight. And that’s what makes them so dangerous in the Final Four: they are prepared for anything Calvin might throw at them.

The first thing that stands out about each team is their dedication to pass-and-move, possession-based attacking soccer. I’m a purist, and I always enjoy watching teams that play this way make the Final Four. On the other hand—and perhaps this is why my teams never got there—Calvin and Brandeis have discovered a way to couple that core philosophy with the other aspects of the game necessary for a championship. Both teams are solid defensively, both are really good on set pieces, attacking and defending, and both know how to shut down a game once they take the lead. They’re focused on possession and scoring, but they won’t take unnecessary risks and they don’t prioritize style at the expense of results.

In terms of specifics, Calvin scores in three ways: (1) crosses and cutbacks from wingers; (2) counter-attacks; and (3) set pieces, especially corners. Watch how many times the Knights isolate dangerous wingmen, particularly Mitch Stark, one-on-one in the corner, with those players then beating their man and putting balls into the box. These crosses aren’t aimless; they’re passes that give attacking players storming into the box simple tap-ins for a goal. The second area Calvin is effective is in the counter. The Knights have great team speed, and when they force turnovers in the midfield, they’re deadly getting the ball forward. Finally, corner kicks. Calvin knocked out Messiah on one in the Elite Eight, then scored twice on corners against Franklin and Marshall to punch their ticket to Salem. So it might not matter if they can’t break through in the run of play.

At the other end, Brandeis has a diverse attack led by midfield dynamo Josh Ocel. He’s been the danger man all year, and Calvin’s midfield will need to know his whereabouts at all times. They can’t mark him when he’s delivering set pieces, though, and Van Ryn and the Calvin defense will know just how dangerous set pieces are from watching their own team. Now that Brandeis is healthy, they’re getting contributions from everyone—Zach Viera, Evan Jastremski, Mike Lynch, and others—and the team is playing with a belief that prior editions may have lacked late in the season. That belief is peaking right now, and they’ll approach this game with no fear. For Vegter and Co. in the back, that makes preparation difficult, because Brandeis can score in so many different ways.

Most people have Calvin as slight favorites, and any edge Brandeis had from a tougher schedule has disappeared, but I expect an open, attack-minded game. Brandeis plays home games on turf, and Calvin struggled to score in the opening rounds at Carnegie Mellon’s turf field, but turf allows teams to play on the floor, so that should only mean that we get to see a good game. I don’t think experience makes much difference either: Calvin played in last year’s Final Four, but Brandeis is loaded with upper classmen who have been targeting this moment for four years. Whichever team handles the mental side of things and plays most like itself might be in the best position to win.

I think Brandeis needs an early goal more than Calvin, because the Knights are so good in the back and so dangerous on the counter that they could punish a Brandeis team chasing the game. Once in front, the Judges could really take advantage in midfield, finding gaps to play through Calvin pressure and pouring on attacking pressure, as they did against Rutgers-Newark. If Brandeis goes behind, I think the key is to stick with the same style, and trust that a goal will arrive, rather than to overcommit to attack too early in the game.

Calvin has been the more consistent team, albeit with a wider margin for error in the MIAA, so the key for the Knights is trust. Trust the system that got you there, trust that it’s good enough to win a title, trust in your ability to beat Brandeis on your terms. And if that fails, just go with what’s working and have Bobby McCaw knock in another goal to reach the final.

Both teams are, in my opinion, desperate to win, and that can go either way. Sometimes it causes teams to freeze up and results in a boring 0-0 game. I don’t see that happening here. I think Calvin and Brandeis go at each other from the off, and the goals flow as both teams sense a real opportunity to win a title. I certainly hope that’s the case, and my fingers are crossed for an exciting, 3-2 overtime game. Who wins that game is anyone’s guess.

Comments or feedback for the author?  E-mail Ryan Harmanis.