Men's Sectional Previews: East

By Ryan Harmanis

Third Round - Friday

Quarterfinals - Saturday

Sectional Final, 5:00 pm ET

How they reached the Sweet 16

2016 Statistical Overview

Messiah Season Review

After dominating Division III soccer for more than a decade, Messiah failed to qualify for the NCAA tournament in 2015. Falcons fans needn’t have worried, as elite programs don’t just fall off the map. Last year’s troubles were more the result of graduating one of the best classes in D-III history and losing the wrong games than a sign of major decline. But 2015 did raise a question: is Messiah’s run at an end? Are the Falcons just another great program now, or are they still the elite program in Division III?

September signaled improvement, with a solid opening win at Roanoke and a strong performance against Lynchburg that only lacked a goal. With Kirby Robbins, Colby Thomas, and Jacob Bender starting to find the net with regularity, Messiah was looking dangerous but inconsistent in September. Concerns about the defense remained, but Messiah put them to bed in a cathartic 1-0 win over rival Elizabethtown. The Falcons shut down and shut out the Blue Jays, and have conceded just two goals in their last 14 games. A 4-0 demolition of No. 5 Washington and Lee answered questions about how Messiah would fare away from Shoemaker field, and the Falcons raced through the Commonwealth with a perfect record. A pair of easy wins in the conference tournament capped an undefeated season, a No. 2 national ranking, and a presumed high seed in the NCAA tournament.

The committee did Messiah no favors. Despite a comfortable opening win, a heavyweight in either Christopher Newport or red-hot Montclair State lurked in round two. CNU made a statement of intent by thrashing Montclair 5-1, and the Captains refused to back down on Sunday night. In one of the best games of opening weekend, the difference, as it has been so often, was senior Jacob Bender. The All-American candidate turned brilliantly in the box and fired a quick shot past the CNU keeper to give Messiah a first-half lead it would not relinquish. Things got nervy at the end, as Newport had a penalty kick late in the second half, but goalkeeper Connor Bell made a fantastic kick save to preserve the lead. Messiah added a late insurance goal and continued a familiar trek through the tournament.

Calvin Season Review

Calvin finished a record-breaking 2015 season with a 24-1-1 record and a Final Four appearance. The Knights graduated five starters, however, including the backbone of a dominant defense and one of D-III’s best goalkeepers, so it was hard to know what to expect. I watched Calvin live on opening weekend—a 4-1 win over Capital and a 2-1 loss to Ohio Wesleyan—and came away thinking the Knights were a talented but evolving team that would look much different and much better come NCAA tournament time. In particular, I was interested to see how midfielders Stephan Hooker and Mitch Stark carried the load in attack and whether Trent Vegter could fill the void left by departing senior Nick Groenewold.

Following that disappointing loss in a budding rivalry with OWU, Calvin shut out fellow Sweet-Sixteen team Benedictine before disappearing into MIAA play. The MIAA plays a double round robin regular season, so the Knights were tasked with playing 14 regular season conference games, even though no other MIAA team could be considered NCAA-worthy. The schedule makes Calvin difficult to evaluate, even more so when the Knights cruised through the first round of MIAA games at 7-0 with 24 goals scored and zero conceded. Questions mounted when Adrian pulled off an upset in early October, but that loss was a mere aberration in an otherwise perfect MIAA run. Stark and Hooker combined for 12 goals and 15 assists, and they were bolstered in attack by the emergence of Bobby McCaw and Ian Adams. And Vegter led another dominant defensive unit, one that’s conceded just 10 goals all year.

The Knights rolled through the remaining MIAA schedule, finishing eleven points ahead of second-placed Alma, and avoided any strength-of-schedule issues by winning the MIAA tournament. Strength-of-schedule did have an impact, however, on Calvin’s path to the Sweet Sixteen. Based on Calvin’s lofty No. 6 ranking and excellent record, you would have expected a relatively easy first round game. You’d have been wrong, as the committee matched Calvin with No. 9 Ohio Northern, another dominant team suffering from a weak strength of schedule. With Vegter leading the way, Calvin suffocated the Polar Bears’s high-powered offense, and McCaw’s goal off a corner was enough to win a titanic first-round match. McCaw would score the winner again in the second round, but the real star was goalkeeper Nate Van Ryn, who made a number of crucial saves to help Calvin topple No. 19 Carnegie Mellon. Now the Knights are back in the Sweet Sixteen, looking for another shot at the Final Four.

Cortland State Season Review

Expectations were high entering the season for Cortland State. After a fantastic 2014 season resulted in a Sweet Sixteen berth, the Red Dragons dropped off a little in 2015, going “just” 12-5-2. But Cortland returned their top three scorers, all seniors, and looked to rebound with another NCAA run in coach Steve Axtell’s fifth season at the helm.

The Red Dragons opened the season with five straight wins, but the competition was subpar and a pair of road losses to St. Lawrence (2-1) and rival Oneonta State (3-0) brought Cortland back to earth. The Red Dragons tumbled from the rankings and were out of sight, out of mind for much of the D-III world. Cortland responded by picking up win after win and shutout after shutout. The Red Dragons’ defense, anchored by First-Team All-SUNYAC honorees Drew DeJohn and goalkeeper Connor Young, allowed only two goals in Cortland’s final 12 regular season games. That strength in the back allowed Cortland to run away with the SUNYAC on the back of five 1-0 conference wins. And Cortland State won redemption against the “other” Red Dragons from Oneonta with a 1-0 win in the SUNYAC title game.

Cortland State announced its return to the NCAA tournament with a bang, hammering Morrisville State 5-1. The second round brought a dangerous Scranton team fresh off a win over Penn State-Behrend. The first half was an even affair, but junior Ma’Cain Spragling picked the best time possible to score his first goal in the 28th minute. A more familiar name doubled the lead, with Tyler Kirschner netting the all-important second goal. Scranton upped the ante to open the second half and halved the deficit with over a half hour to play. Despite increasing pressure and a one-man barrage from Scranton’s Tim DiBisceglie—who had two shots saved, one blocked, and saw one hit the post—Cortland’s defense dug in and clinched another trip to the Sweet Sixteen.

Franklin and Marshall Season Review

Following another stellar season that ended just short of the Final Four, Franklin and Marshall entered 2016 looking to do one better. The Diplomats returned their entire defense and four of their top five scorers, with All-American Chase TenBrook the biggest loss to graduation. Led by captain defenders Jeremy Levine and Ben Wild, expectations were high for Coach Dan Wagner’s squad.

F&M did not disappoint early on, notching a win over Lycoming that looked great at the time and handing Elizabethtown its first loss of the season. A tough 2-1 loss against Rowan was viewed as a sign of both teams’ potential rather than a major setback, and F&M reeled off seven straight wins to take control of the Centennial Conference—including an excellent performance in an overtime win over rival Haverford. But the Diplomats couldn’t seal the deal, dropping their last regular season game at Dickinson, and ceded the conference championship to Haverford in the process. The loss took its toll, as F&M was lucky to survive a conference semifinal against Johns Hopkins. The Diplomats needed penalties to reach the conference final, but Haverford was the better side and F&M slumped into the NCAA tournament winless in its final three games.

No matter. Franklin and Marshall worked out the kinks in a comfortable 1-0 blanking of Geneva, then turned their attention to Washington and Lee for a marquee second-round matchup. A free kick goal from Zach Colton early on settled the nerves, and F&M put in a strong performance over 90 minutes before adding an insurance goal with 30 seconds to go. With the win, F&M reached the Sweet Sixteen for a fourth straight time. Is this the year for a breakthrough?

Head Coaches

Seniors' 4-year Record (through Nov. 13)

Tournament Experience

Each team has experience to draw upon. Messiah won the title when this year’s seniors were freshmen and reached the Elite Eight in 2014. Calvin made the Final Four last year and knows how to grind out results in November. F&M has reached the second weekend of the tournament each of the last three years. And Cortland State has the least experience, but made an appearance in the Sweet Sixteen just two seasons ago.

Players to Watch

Messiah: M Jacob Bender (Sr.) – 12g, 8a | F Kirby Robbins (Jr.) – 13g, 4a | F Colby Thomas (Jr.) – 7g, 11a | D Dakota Rosenberg (Jr.)

Calvin: M Bobby McCaw (So.) – 14g, 3a | M Mitch Stark (Jr.) – 4g, 12a | M Stephan Hooker (Sr.) – 8g, 3a | D Trent Vegter (So.) – 4g, 7a

Cortland St.: F Nick Tata (Sr.) – 11g, 4a | F Tyler Kirschner (Sr.) – 6g, 6a | M Daniel Friend (Sr.) – 6g, 6a | GK Connor Young (Jr.) – 10 ShO, 0.941 Sv.Pct.

Frank. & Marsh.: F Ugo Okolie (So.) – 3g, 8a | F Jason Tonelli (Jr.) – 10g, 2a | M Robert Maze (Fr.) – 9g, 0a | D Wyatt Fabian (Jr.) – 1g, 4a

Tournament Re-Matches

None of these teams faced off in the regular season, but there is history here. Messiah beat Calvin 2-1 in the 2010 national championship game, while the Falcons also knocked out Cortland State in 2014 (by a 6-1 scoreline) and Franklin and Marshall in 2013 (4-1). We could also see a rematch of last year’s Sweet Sixteen match between Calvin and F&M, which the Knights barely edged despite F&M perhaps having the better of play.

Why they will advance to the Final Four

Messiah: Last year was a one-off, and nobody is better in November than Messiah. That’s particularly true at home, where Shoemaker Field gives the Falcons one of (if not the) best advantages in all of Division III. Calvin’s defense holds Messiah at bay for a half, but no more, setting up a 2014 rematch with Cortland State or a storybook meeting with Messiah alum Dan Wagner’s Franklin and Marshall team. Either is a tough proposition, but neither has shown they have the firepower to break down Messiah’s defense. And the Falcons will score goals this weekend—enough to end a Final Four “drought” dating back to 2013.

Calvin: For all the hand wringing over Calvin’s schedule, the Knights survived the toughest opening weekend imaginable and will fear nothing at this point. Calvin already shut down one high-scoring offense in Ohio Northern and beat another tough team on its home turf. The Knights have found a winning NCAA formula, and they concoct a perfect game plan to stun Messiah on Friday night behind yet another game winner from Bobby McCaw. A run of 1-0 wins marks a team of destiny, and if Messiah can’t find the net, neither will F&M or Cortland State against Vegter, Van Ryn and co.

Cortland St.: The Red Dragons have been unbeatable for months, and they’ve already beaten a similar team to F&M in Oneonta State. Senior experience and another unexpected hero give Cortland an early lead and leave F&M wondering if they’ll fall in the second weekend again. Like last weekend, the Red Dragons bend but don’t break and snag an insurance goal to reach the Elite Eight. There, they’ll face a mirror image in Calvin or be tasked with countering Messiah’s depth on less than 24 hours’ rest. Both potential opponents are stingy in the back, leading to a cagey affair decided by a single goal. Connor Young proves the difference in goal, making a few outstanding saves, and perhaps even one or two in penalties, as Cortland State moves on.

Frank. & Marsh.: F&M played the toughest schedule of the four and enters this weekend battle-tested. The Diplomats recovered from their Halloween swoon with two solid performances last weekend and are playing their best soccer at exactly the right time. They also have the perfect combination of experience in the back line and youth further up field. Okolie unlocks Cortland State’s defense and Maze scores another NCAA goal to mark a comprehensive win, but Messiah looms. The aura has worn off, however, and F&M beats Messiah at its own game in the biggest surprise of the tournament thus far. The Final Four breakthrough has to come eventually, right?

Comments or feedback for the author?  E-mail Ryan Harmanis.