Men's Sectional Previews: Rust Belt

By D3soccer.com Contributor

Third Round - Saturday

Quarterfinals - Sunday

Sectional Final, 1:00 pm ET

How they reached the Sweet 16

2019 Statistical Overview

Centre Season Review

As Southern Athletic Association (SAA) regular season runner-up and conference tournament champion, Centre makes its third trip to the NCAA tournament in the last four years, losing in PK’s to Carnegie Mellon after a scoreless first-round match last season. Winners of 12 straight, the Colonels haven’t lost since September 28. Prior to this streak, they picked up some key non-conference results including a 3-2 come-from-behind victory over Hanover (trailed 2-0 in the second half), a 2-0 win away at Haverford and a tight 1-0 loss to Kenyon (0-0 at halftime).

Centre has scored 56 goals this year and rank 11th in the nation with 19.4 shots per game. Forward Alex Garuba is the top goal scorer left in the NCAA tournament with 22 goals, ten of which were scored in the last six games. Of the 22 games Centre has played, Garuba has been held scoreless just six times. He and midfielder Dylan Barth (8g, 4a) were named first team All-SAA. Centre’s defense also features two first-team all-conference players: centerback Michael Vogt and goalkeeper Tate Johnson. The Colonels held opponents scoreless 10 times this season with Johnson in goal for nine of those shutouts. He has conceded 15 goals this year for a .82 GAA.

One of the more impressive statistics for this team is their 11-1-0 record away from home this season, including both NCAA games last weekend. They outshot John Carroll—at John Carroll!—in their 3-1 second-round victory, holding the hosts to seven shots, four on goal. That should buoy Centre’s confidence that they can continue to secure road results as they travel to Kenyon for the sectional.

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps Season Review

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, the Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (SCIAC) regular season and conference tournament champion, returns to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2012. After going 4-11-1 in 2017, the Stags went 15-2-1 in 2018 and 16-3-2 to date in 2019. How did they accomplish such a turn-around? Defense. In the past two years, Claremont has won or tied 34 games, and in 26 of those the opponent did not score. Currently, this team has not conceded a goal since the 47th minute of their game against Whittier three weeks ago: a shutout streak of over 500 minutes.

The defense is anchored by senior Adam Singer, who was not only selected to the All-SCIAC first team but also named the 2019 SCIAC Athlete of the Year. He is joined on the all-conference first team by fellow defender William Birchard, a junior, while second team honors went to platooned sophomore goalkeeper Eduardo De Anda whose .886 save percentage would qualify for second best in the nation if he had played a half game more. The Stags’ defense ranks fifth in the country in GAA (.513), conceding just 11 times. Offensively, Claremont has only scored 41 goals this year—15 less than third round opponent Centre and even further behind Kenyon’s 65 and Montclair’s 60 goals. Scoring is led by sophomore forwards Ethan Tyng (9 goals) and William Barton (7), while defender Birchard has 5 goals, 4 from the spot.

Notable wins have come over St. Thomas (Minn.), at Emory, against Redlands in the SCIAC title game, and twice versus Trinity (Texas) including last weekend’s second round NCAA victory. Claremont has posted a 3-2-2 record versus regionally ranked teams and a solid 8-2-1 record away from home. Coach Matt Edwards has made deep use of his roster with 23 of the 26 players seeing action in at least 50% of the games and at least seven players coming off the bench regardless the opponent or score line.

Montclair State Season Review

New Jersey Athletic Conference (NJAC) regular season runner-up and conference tournament champion Montclair State returns to the NCAA Sweet 16 for the second consecutive year. The Red Hawks are balanced mix of offense and defense, averaging 2.55 goals per game on offense and allowing just 0.68 goals per game on defense. Interestingly, Montclair was never regionally ranked in 2019 with a respectable .571 strength of schedule but not high enough in a very strong South Atlantic region. Their record versus regionally ranked teams is just 1-3-1 with the lone win coming against Rowan in the NJAC final. Their four losses all came away from home, but since their loss to Rowan on September 28, Montclair has gone 10-0-1 overall.

Freshman Oscar Sanchez leads the team with 14 goals and garnered first team All-NJAC honors, but 18 different players have scored for the Red Hawks this season, eight with three or more tallies. Junior goalkeeper Michael Mejia has been solid all year and has only allowed one goal in the past five games. He has a lot of help from the four senior defenders directly in front of him: this defensive unit has 12 shutouts and has only conceded more than a single goal on four occasions (all losses).

Head coach Todd Tumelty, a former MSU player and captain, has a career winning percentage of .780 and has guided his alma mater to the NCAA tournament in seven out of the past eight years. This team features many players from the 2018 side that made it to the Elite 8 before losing to eventual champion, Tufts. Getting results against Hobart and Franklin & Marshall last weekend shows the Red Hawks are up for another run this year.

Kenyon Season Review

After claiming the North Coast Athletic Conference (NCAC) regular season and conference tournament championships and two NCAA wins, Kenyon’s record stands at 19-1-2. Their only loss came in the second game of the season at John Carroll, a game in which the Lords led twice. This is a young team with only five seniors, and senior John Penas missed most of the year with injuries. He is healthy now and, as their #10, is key to driving the attack. Coach Brown has used over a dozen different starting line-ups, and no player has started all 20 games. He has also employed almost his entire bench during the season, earning valuable experience for many young players. However, the substitution pattern—bringing in five or six new players at one time—does cause occasional chemistry issues.

In his second season of collegiate play, sophomore Scott Upton was named NCAC Offensive Player of the Year in addition to All-NCAC first team honors. He has scored 8 goals as has fellow sophomore and NCAC first-teamer Sam Carson. In fact, 60% of the Lords’ scoring comes from four sophomores and two freshman, including leading scorer Alti Hrafnkelsson (10 goals), the freshman who has yet to start a game. Kenyon is fifth in the country with 20.5 shots taken per game, and the team has scored 65 goals this year.

The defense has posted the fewest clean-sheets (9) of any Kenyon team in recent memory, conceding 23 goals in 22 games for a GAA of 1.04. Just three of those shutouts have come in the last 11 games, and reoccurring defensive miscues is a concern. Conversely, the offense has been clicking the last six games—granted, two 5-1 wins came against Oberlin, but scoring 23 goals over this span can fuel optimism for their forwards.

Head Coaches

Seniors' 4-year Record (through Nov. 17)

Players to Watch

Centre: #17 F Alexander Garuba (Sr.) - 22g, 5a, 8gwg | #13 F Will Newton (Jr.) - 8g, 5a, 4gwg | #14 M Dylan Barth (Jr.) - 8g, 4a, 4gwg | #15 M Nafiz Budeiri (So.) - 6g, 2a | #3 D Michael Vogt (Jr.) - 1g | #5 D Patrick Ferrell (Sr.)

Claremont-M-S: #19 F Ethan Tyng (So.) - 9g, 2a, 3gwg | #9 F William Barton (So.) - 7g, 4a | #8 M Samay Rahim (So.) - 1g, 2a | #2 D Adam Singer (Sr.) - 2g | #15 D William Birchard (Jr.) - 5g, 4a | #1 GK Eduardo De Anda (So). - .886 Sv%, .38 GAA

Montclair State: #26 F Oscar Sanchez (Fr.) - 14g, 1a, 6gwg, .292 sht.pct | #10 F Jose Huerta (Sr.) - 5g, 3a, 3gwg | #11 M Michael Knapp (So.) - 3g, 1a | #17 M Anthony Pelaez (So.) - 2g, 3a | #2 D Ian Johnson (Sr.) | #6 D Joe Bianco (Sr.)

Kenyon: #22 F Scott Upton (So.) - 8g, 2a, 4gwg | #4 F Sam Carson (So.) - 8g, 3a, 3gwg | #10 M John Penas (Sr.) - 1a | #15 Luke Muther (So.) - 1g, 1a | #5 D Sam Hosmer-Quint (Jr.) - 3g, 1a | #25 D Chayne Burneau (Fr.)

Tournament Re-Matches

These games will be played on Kenyon’s grass field, which up until now is in decent shape. However, there will be unsteady footing as we saw this past weekend. The weather report is calling for rain on Saturday, currently forecasted to impact the 1:30 pm game between Kenyon and Montclair State. Claremont is the only other team with a grass home field, but it’s unlikely the Stags will be used to the weather.

Special Considerations

These games will be played on Kenyon’s grass field, which up until now is in decent shape. However, there will be unsteady footing as we saw this past weekend. The weather report is calling for rain on Saturday, currently forecasted to impact the 1:30 pm game between Kenyon and Montclair State. Claremont is the only other team with a grass home field, but it’s unlikely the Stags will be used to the weather.

Why they will advance to the Final Four

Centre: The Colonels are road warriors—11-1-0 away from home—with one of the most potent offensive weapons left in the tournament. Their willingness to take shots from outside the 18 (see the golazo versus Kalamazoo), combined with a slippery surface, can only lead to scoring chances and rebounds. Of the four teams in this group, Centre has conceded the most goals on average this year (0.85), but that is skewed by the three goals in the wild 4-3 SAA final win against Oglethorpe.

Claremont-M-S: The Stags have the fifth best defense in the country, going the last 500 minutes without conceding a goal. Claremont probably has the toughest task of the remaining 16 teams, only three of which are based outside the eastern time zone. Coming from California and making the time adjustment could have the players less than sharp for their 11:00 am game.

Montclair State: Using Massey Ratings, the NJAC was the fourth toughest conference in Division III (NCAC - 16th, SCIAC - 17th and SAA - 19th). Montclair State is 7-0-2 in their last nine games, all against opponents with winning records—a combined 106-48-28. The Red Hawks have scored 60 goals—5 less than Kenyon—and have concede just 16. They haven’t lost since September 28 and goalkeeper Michael Mejia has only given up one goal in the last five games.

Kenyon: The Lords are at home where they are 33-1-1 over the past three years, 22-0-2 the last two years. They are 18-0-2 since the loss at John Carroll, winners of eight straight, outscoring opponents 27-8 over this eight-game span. And Kenyon is the only team in this group accustomed to playing on wet grass. As a team, they are attacking as well as anyone in the tournament right now. They just need to avoid those defensive lapses that could lead to a 1-0 loss.

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