November 5, 2010

Men's NCAA tournament preview

By D3soccer.com contributor Chris Shirk

The NCAA Division III men’s soccer championship tournament begins next week, and the 60-team tournament field will be comprised of the champions of the 41 conferences that have been granted an automatic berth (AQ), two at-large selections from among the independent schools and conferences without an automatic berth (called Pool B), and seventeen unrestricted at-large selections from among the schools not gaining entry via either previous method (called Pool C). The at-large berths are awarded on a national basis with no maximum or minimum number of berths per region. 

With the conference tournaments progressing and teams being eliminated, the list of candidates for the seventeen Pool C at-large berths is taking shape.  Although the selections will be announced on Monday, November 8 before we see the final rankings, this week’s NCAA regional rankings done by the tournament selection committee (not to be confused with the NSCAA polls) provide a very reliable guide for anticipating which schools will receive bids.  Based on the past five years, we can expect that about 20 to 25 of sixty-five total ranked teams will win their conference championship and the AQ.  With three ranked Pool B schools to fill two at-large berths, that leaves about 38 to 43 Pool C candidates for just seventeen slots!  The harsh reality is that many ranked teams will not be participating in the tournament. 
 

With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the conference tournaments are progressing and discuss the implications of the results for the at-large selections.  Of course, there are numerous conferences that do not having any of their schools ranked and therefore the conference champion will be their sole representative in the NCAA tournament regardless who that may be.  It is the progress or failure to advance of ranked teams that is of interest.  We’ll tackle this region-by-region. 

New England Region

Right off the top, let’s acknowledge that the top four teams in the New England Small College Athletic Conference (NESCAC) hold the top four spots in the rankings and it is pretty safe to say that those four will be in the tournament: one as conference champion and three as recipients of Pool C bids.  No. 2 seed Williams was ousted by No. 7 Wesleyan in the quarterfinals, but this will have no consequence unless Wesleyan would go on and win the NESCAC title.  In that case, one of the four expected to dance could be left at home if the committee wants to cap the entries per conference at four.

On Wednesday, the top two seeds in the Massachusetts State College Athletic Conference (MASCAC), No. 1 Westfield St. and No. 2 Bridgewater St., fell in their semifinal matches.  Ranked ninth and seventh, respectively, in the New England region, Bridgewater can hope for an invite along with the sixth ranked Eastern Connecticut St. who was eliminated by Rhode Island on penalty kicks in their Little East Conference (LEC) semifinal.  If Babson reaches the New England Women’s & Men’s Athletic Conference (NEWMAC) final, win or lose, they are a better bet than either of them to get the region’s fourth at-large berth.  It is questionable if the region is considered strong enough this year to garner a fifth at-large berth, but it also can’t be ruled out. 

East Region

The four Liberty League playoff teams were tightly bunched and the two which are regionally ranked found themselves paired in Wednesday’s semifinal.  No. 1 St. Lawrence and No. 4 Hamilton, ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, needed overtime to determine a winner, with the higher-seeded Saints moving on, 3-2.  They can probably lose in the final and still get selected from Pool C, while Hamilton, who is now on the bubble, will hope St. Lawrence wins the title instead of grabbing an at-large berth that could go to them.  No. 3 Rensselaer, the other finalist, edged No. 2 Union on penalty kicks, but being ninth ranked will need the automatic berth to go dancing. 

Two or three SUNY Athletic Conference (SUNYAC) schools will have something to say about where any at-large berths go in the East Region.  Semifinalists Plattsburgh, Oneonta, and Brockport, if unable to win the SUNYAC, will probably be in competition with Hamilton for a berth, although it’s possible that two berths will go to this group of schools as long as St. Lawrence doesn’t join them in Pool C.

Rochester is ranked third, but their fate is tied as much to the University Athletic Association (UAA) standings.  If they defeat Case Western this weekend to move up to fourth, they are highly likely to get a Pool C berth.  A tie or a loss and they remain fifth in the conference and would need the committee to be very kind to the UAA.  Ahead of them in both the region and the conference is New York University who tops the UAA with one game to play and is a lock for at-large selection should they need it.  The region’s top team, Stevens Tech is expected to win the Empire 8 tournament this weekend and would frustrate the hopefuls if they got tripped up and forced the committee to spend a Pool C berth on them. 

Mid-Atlantic Region

The first ranked school in the Mid-Atlantic to wade into the Pool C waters is Landmark Conference’s No. 2 seed Drew who lost to No. 3 Merchant Marine in their Wednesday semifinal.  Drew is ranked third and Merchant Marine, who they beat in the regular season, is sixth.  It’s difficult to know which of the two would be ranked higher if Merchant Marine were to lose to No. 4 seed Catholic in the Landmark final.  It’s probable, though not certain, that one of them gets a berth.  Tuesday night in the Commonwealth Conference semifinals, No. 1 Messiah and No. 2 Elizabethtown held serve to set up yet another back-to-back Saturday rematch in their storied rivalry. The eighth-ranked Blue Jays will need to steal the title back from the favored Falcons to advance to the NCAAs, while top-ranked Messiah is in, win or lose.  For this reason, candidates for Pool C berths across the nation will be cheering a Messiah victory.  

Centennial Conference No. 4 seed Johns Hopkins trampled No. 5 Gettysburg in the conference’s mid-week play-in game.  They are one of four ranked schools from the conference which could be deserving of two at-large berths.  Of course, that seemed even more the case last year and they disappointingly only received one.  Second-ranked and conference No. 1 seed Swarthmore are virtually a lock for a Pool C berth even should they lose in the semifinals; an appearance in the final removes any doubt.  The other semifinalists Muhlenberg, Johns Hopkins, and Franklin & Marshall are ranked fourth, fifth, and seventh, respectively, and there’s a good chance another at-large berth goes to one of them.   
 

South Atlantic Region

Tuesday night in the New Jersey Athletic Conference (NJAC), both regionally ranked semifinalists were eliminated and in need of an at-large invites.  Second-ranked William Paterson, as the conference No. 2 seed were ousted on PK’s by No. 6 Kean but remain a highly likely recipient of a Pool C berth, helped by the fact that NJAC No. 4 and sixth-ranked Montclair St. suffered the same fate at the hands of No. 1 TCNJ in the other semifinal.  Neither finalist is a contender for an at-large selection due to woeful non-conference results.  It’s unlikely Montclair will have their season extended, but can’t be completely ruled out as a loss by fifth-ranked North Carolina Wesleyan in the USA South Athletic Conference semifinals Friday could improve their chances.  Assuming both top seeds, No. 1 N.C. Wesleyan and No. 2 Christopher Newport advance to the USA South final, the loser is a solid bet to be selected by the NCAA.  With no teams ranked in the region, the ODAC's only contribution to the post-season this year will be their tournament champion, either Hampden-Sydney or Lynchburg.

Third-ranked York is a near lock to be playing at least another week even if they lose in the Capital Athletic Conference (CAC) final to rivals Salisbury who somewhat surprisingly were shuffled down to the eighth and final spot in the South Atlantic rankings this week.  That’s very ominous for the Sea Gulls as teams generally don’t have a chance for Pool C selection from that position entering the final week, and while their semifinal advancement on penalty kicks keeps them alive to fight for the CAC’s automatic entry, it didn’t help their Pool C resume.  As hard at is seems to believe, past history suggests they have only one hope and that rests in winning the CAC championship.   Top-ranked Emory could take the UAA title, but, if not, they are a certain Pool C selection.  

Great Lakes Region

Traditionally the Great Lakes region has not received many at-large berths (one or none from 2005 through 2008).  The regional realignments prior to last year didn’t strengthen the region as Calvin, Hope and the MIAA departed to be replaced by the Presidents’ Athletic Conference (PAC) and some Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference (AMCC) schools.  Nevertheless, with a couple conference favorites losing in their finals, 2009 saw the region gain three berths.  This year it is very difficult to predict if the committee will find the conference strong enough for multiple at-large selections of not.  Now that second-ranked Kenyon couldn’t manage a semifinal win in the North Coast Athletic Conference (NCAC) playoffs, Pool C candidates nationwide hope for top-ranked and conference No. 1 Ohio Wesleyan to avoid a repeat of last year: a conference final loss to Denison.  Having been ranked second coming into the week, Kenyon is certainly in the mix for an at-large berth, but their relatively low strength-of-schedule keeps them from being a safe bet.

In the Ohio Athletic Conference (OAC) Thursday, the ranked top seeds Heidelberg and Ohio Northern both won and will play for the title and automatic berth on Saturday.  The loser will be part of the at-large discussion as Heidelberg is ranked third and Ohio Northern fifth in the region.  They will probably be competing with Kenyon and the bubble teams from the Central Region for a berth or two.  Fourth-ranked Case Western, like their weekend opponent Rochester, might have their fate tied to their final standing in the UAA more than anything else: a win or a tie and they stay fourth and are highly liked to be selected; a loss and they fall to fifth which might be asking the committee to take too many from one conference.  Sixth-ranked Carnegie Mellon, by pulling up the rear of the UAA, would seem to be well out of contention.  DePauw at seventh in the region will need a huge pair of weekend results and some help to win the Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference (SCAC) championship, but failing to get the help they need from Centre to snatch the title, it would be hard for the committee to ignore a pair of wins over Trinity and Southwestern when deciding the Pool C entrants. 

Central Region

Second-ranked Dominican progressed to the Northern Athletic Conference (NAC) final with a semifinal win Tuesday and will face the No. 2 seed Aurora who also won.  Aurora is unranked and in need of the conference’s automatic berth to play on, so this is another one of those finals where the Pool C bubble teams pray for the outcome to go as expected.  Third-ranked Calvin is deadlocked with sixth-ranked Hope atop the Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association (MIAA) standings with the final game day this Sunday.  Calvin has the sixth-place team at home while Hope travels to the fourth-place team.  Should they both win, Hope takes the automatic berth having won head-to-head both times and Calvin takes their chances in Pool C.  In the unlikely event they both lose, Adrian could take the title with a road win against the last-place team.  Should they be without the automatic berth, Calvin has good shot to emerge from Pool C with one--in fact, it’s highly likely should they go out with a win; Hope doesn’t have that to fall back on. 

Fourth and fifth-ranked Wheaton and North Park won their College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin (CCIW) semifinals as top seeds and meet in the final Saturday.  The loser will be in contention for a Pool C berth, but would love to see Calvin edge out Hope in the MIAA to improve their chances.  The UAA championship could be won by the region’s top-ranked Washington (MO), but like all the regional No. 1’s, their place in the NCAAs is assured. 

North Region

One-two in the North Region rankings are Pool B schools, UW-Oshkosh and UW-Whitewater, who are certain to grab the two Pool B at-large berths ahead of UC-Santa Cruz.  They are followed by a pair of Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (MIAC) schools: Augsburg in fourth, Macalester in fifth.  As the top two seeds in the conference tournament, they were meant to meet this Saturday to decide the title and guaranteed ticket to the NCAAs, but No. 1 Macalester fell 3-2 to No. 4 Concordia-Moorhead Tuesday, and has left their fate in the hands of the committee.  That means Augsburg has a decent shot, and much better than Macalester, to live to play another day even with a loss in the final.  Macalester will prefer that Augsburg takes home the title leaving them closer to the front of the Pool C line.  Concordia, ranked fifth the previous two weeks, was dropped this week and as such need the road win over Augsburg to dance. 

Top-seeded St. Scholastica advanced to the Upper Midwest Athletic Conference (UMAC) final with their semifinal victory on Tuesday.  The fifth-ranked team in the region should punch their ticket with a victory Saturday, but their loss alone if they don’t because they don’t have the resume to make waves in the Pool C waters.  The last team ranked, Dubuque, advanced to the Iowa Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (IIAC) semifinals with a quarterfinal win on Tuesday.  Friday they will meet No. 2 Loras who is ranked right above them at sixth.  Probably the only scenario in which either of these schools gives themselves a small chance for a Pool C berth without winning the conference in the process would be to win the semifinal and only lose the final on penalty kicks.  IIAC No. 1 Wartburg doesn’t even have that glimmer of hope.

West Region

Top-ranked Trinity enters the final weekend of SCAC action with the comfort of knowing they would be among the no-brainers for the selection committee should the unlikely happen.  It would require a winless weekend road trip to DePauw and Centre for the eight-time defending champions to release their grip on the title, and it’s hard to imagine the Tigers not roaring back with a win over Centre on Saturday if they were to lose to DePauw Friday night.  Unranked Southwestern could take advantage of a Trinity meltdown as much as DePauw to claim the title, but anything less will end their season.

Pacific should win the Northwest Conference (NWC) championship as they host last-place George Fox on the final game day.  Redlands and Claremont out of the Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (SCIAC) don't seem to be playing any part in the Pool C debate as low strength-of-schedule numbers have kept them from making the rankings.

The American Southwest Conference (ASC) was a crazy, crowded affair all season long, and who knows who will emerge as champions after the three-day six-team tournament that starts Friday.  No. 4 seed Mary Hardin-Baylor is ranked second in the region while No. 6 Hardin-Simmons is ranked fifth with top-seeded UT-Tyler one back at sixth, and there could just be one at-large berth available this group and independent Santa Cruz who will lose out to the Wisconsin pair for the two Pool B bids.  Hardin-Simmons and Tyler would likely need to reach the final to have a chance while Mary Hardin-Baylor could possibly by eliminated earlier and still have a shot. Santa Cruz defeated an above-average NAIA school 3-0 on Wednesday and now awaits the committee’s decisions and would be helped by Mary Hardin-Baylor winning the ASC and unranked Mississippi reaching the final. 

Summary of Emerging Pool C Berth Picture

Assuming schools like Messiah, Dominican, Trinity, etc. take care of business, the Pool C landscape is shaping up as follows.  Major upsets and other unexpected results can certainly change the pecking order, and no season is free them.

Locks (4)

• Williams (NESCAC)

• One of Bowdoin, Amherst, Middlebury (NESCAC) not winning conference title

• Two of NYU, Emory, Wash U. (UAA) not winning conference title 

Highly Likely (5 - 6)

• One of Bowdoin, Amherst, Middlebury (NESCAC) not winning conference title

• One of Christopher Newport, North Carolina Wesleyan (USA South) not winning conference title

• Swarthmore (Centennial) if they advance to the final and lose - if they do not advance, one of Swarthmore, Muhlenberg, Johns Hopkins (Centennial) not winning conference title

• Winner of Rochester/Case Western (UAA) match

• William Paterson (NJAC)

• York (CAC) if they lose in the CAC final

Likely (7 - 8)

• One of Drew and Merchant Marine if they lose conference final (Landmark)

• One of Swarthmore, Muhlenberg, Johns Hopkins, F&M (Centennial) not winning conference title

• One from MIAC: Augsburg if they lose in final, otherwise Macalester

• St. Lawrence (Liberty) if they lose in conference final

• One or two from Hamilton (Liberty), Plattsburgh, Oneonta, Brockport (SUNYAC) not winning conference title - one maximum if St. Lawrence loses in the final

• Babson (NEWMAC) if they reach but lose conference final - if they lose semifinal, one of Babson, Eastern Connecticut (LEC), Bridgewater (MASCAC)

• One of Mary Hardin-Baylor (ASC) not winning conference title, Santa Cruz (independent), Hardin-Simmons and Texas-Tyler (ASC) if they reach but lose conference final

• One or two of Calvin (MIAA) if not conference champs, Kenyon (NCAC), loser of Heidelberg/Ohio Northern (OAC) final, loser of Wheaton/North Park (CCIW) conference final. 

Unlikely, but Possible

• One of loser of Rochester/Case Western match, Carnegie Mellon if they defeat Emory

• Montclair State (NJAC)

• Salisbury (CAC) if they tie and lose on PKs in CAC final

• Any teams mentioned in above categories but not selected.

No contests today.
No contests today.
No contests today.