September 20, 2019
Zinn's Contenders - Mid-September
By Matthew Zinner
Welcome back to the second edition of Zinn’s contenders. I appreciate the feedback on the first one, and please keep it coming. If you see any typos this week blame it on my professors for scheduling two exams in the same week, don’t they know I’ve got d3soccer to write about.
We are now three weeks into the season and teams are starting to solidify their identities. First a word of caution, no championship has ever been won in September. That being said, you can undoubtedly dig yourself a hole and pretty much write off your pool C aspirations. But that is not what this column is concerned with. These are the teams that are off and flying and counting down the days till Greensboro. So without further ado, the rankings…
Title Favorites
| 1. | Tufts | Preseason: No. 1 | 4-0-0 (1.000) | 12 GF 3 GA |
| Obviously, the team I am most familiar with, I think most of the guys in the locker room would agree that they haven’t played a complete game yet. They coasted through the Keene State game and were bailed out by two late goals off the bench by Alex Ratzen. No disrespect to the Owls, but that is not a game where the Jumbos should be conceding. However, they recovered nicely and won easily against Brandeis in a game always circled on the calendar. Tufts has managed to come through the absences of Joe Braun and Biagio Paoletta unscathed and are heading into a favorable portion of their schedule on paper. | ||
| 2. | Amherst | Preseason: No. 5 | 4-0-0 (1.000) | 11 GF 2 GA |
| This is the best Amherst side since they won it all in 2015. They have arguably the most attacking talent in the country, an extremely athletic midfield, and Bryce Johnson’s long throw-in. German Giammattei was NESCAC rookie of the year last year, but it playing at a whole other level right now with 11 points in 4 games. Add in Freshmen sensation Ada Okorogheye with 7 points in 4 games, and I think the Mammoths are the favorites to win the NESCAC, given that they host Tufts. | ||
| 3. | Calvin | Preseason: No. 2 | 5-1-0 (.833) | 15 GF 6 GA |
| This is where my poll is going to differ from a traditional poll. I am not arguing that Calvin deserves to be ranked #3 in the country based on their body of work. But if I wasn’t a broke grad student with no money, and I had to bet on who’s going to win the title, they are number 3. So why the discrepancy? First, this team knows how to win. They have been to more Final Fours than anyone outside Messiah this decade. And while they dropped a tight one to Ohio Wesleyan this team is still incredibly talented. Hunter Olsen, Ian Adams, Jacob Lyons, and Sam Twigg are 4 of the top 50 players in the country. To win a championship you must have depth and elite players, Calvin has the later in drouths. | ||
| 4. | John Carroll | Preseason: No. 30 | 6-0-0 (1.000) | 15 GF 7 GA |
| John Carroll was one arguably one of the top five teams in the country two seasons ago. After a slight dip last year, that is exactly where they are again. Wins against Kenyon and Rochester give them the best early season resume in the country. But that pales in comparison to what they face over the next several weeks. If they can go 3-1 or even 2-1-1 against Case Western, Carnegie Mellon, Messiah, and Ohio Wesleyan they will be in a strong spot for a #1 overall seed and a first round bye come tournament team. We will learn a lot of this team during the next stretch, but more importantly, they will learn a lot about themselves, and that will be incredibly valuable come tournament time. | ||
| 5. | Oneonta State | Preseason: No. NR | 5-0-0 (1.000) | 15 GF 3 GA |
| One of the top ten programs in the country, the Red Dragons are off to another flying start. They have not played the toughest scheduled so far but have been more than convincing against the teams they have faced. Looking ahead it is possible they will be undefeated heading into the clash against Cortland State. The winner of that game is in line to host until the Final Four depending on how other regions shape up. I would not want to have to travel to New York to face this side. | ||
Title Contenders
| 6. | Johns Hopkins | Preseason: No. 8 | 5-1-0 (.833) | 15 GF 6 GA |
| I know there are always questions about whether Johns Hopkins can win it all with their style of play. But having played them in the Sweet 16 my senior year, I think the answer is yes. In fact, I believe their style is suited to the tournament because, for a lot of teams, it is the first time they will have faced a team that plays anything like it. It took us until halftime to figure out how to deal with it, and other teams will have the same issue. Achim Younker is back healthy, and if he is at 100% he is a top 10 player in the country. This team will be dangerous going forward. | ||
| 7. | Cortland State | Preseason: No. 11 | 4-1-0 (.800) | 9 GF 5 GA |
| Cortland has assembled one of the most impressive non-conference schedules in the country and come through it very well. Victories over Rochester, Rutgers-Newark, and Rutgers-Camden are very impressive, and they are now poised to go on a winning streak heading into the game against Oneonta State. Now why didn’t I put Rowan, the team that beat them, here? Because I simply don’t trust NJAC teams to win it all. In the last five years, not a single NJAC team has given me a reason to believe they can string together six consistent performances to win a championship. Will Rowan be talented enough to win it? Absolutely. Will they win it? I wouldn’t count on it. | ||
| 8. | Kenyon | Preseason: No. 9 | 5-1-0 (.833) | 17 GF 6 GA |
| The Lords have employed a balanced attack during their solid start to the season. No player has more than seven points in six games, as they look for a leader to emerge. They pushed John Carroll to the edge in what has been the game of the year so far. A different result in that game and Kenyon is probably sitting at #3 in this poll. With an only slightly above average strength of schedule, Kenyon should be well-positioned to put a lot of points on the board heading into the Ohio Wesleyan game. Look to see if the Lords have solidified a starting XI by that point or if they continue to ride their depth against lesser opponents. | ||
| 9. | Rowan | Preseason: No. NR | 4-1-1 (.750) | 14 GF 7 GA |
| So I know I just went on a rant against Rowan, the NJAC, and basically the whole state of New Jersey, but this team is incredibly talented. Going in and putting together back to back strong performances against Chicago and North Park is exactly what it takes to reach the Final Four. This team will have enormous firepower upfront, but the question remains if they will be disciplined and solid enough in the back to win the games that matter. | ||
| 10. | Chicago | Preseason: No. 7 | 2-0-3 (.700) | 7 GF 4 GA |
| Chicago has had an odd start to the season. With the toughest strength of schedule in the country, this young team will be tested at every turn. So far they have managed to emerge undefeated against five good teams, and if you can’t win, don’t lose. Chicago has been able to build off of their success to consistently recruit elite players. So even if they haven’t had the chance to shine before, the talent is there. | ||
| 11. | Connecticut College | Preseason: No. NR | 4-0-0 (1.000) | 10 GF 1 GA |
| Coming into the season we knew the Camels would be good in the back. They return the best goalkeeper in the country and most of a very solid backline in front of him. But there were undoubtedly questions upfront and in the midfield. So far Conn College has answered those questions with four straight victories and an offensive output far surpassing last year’s totals. This team will be right there with Amherst and Tufts for NESCAC superiority. | ||
| 12. | Hardin-Simmons | Preseason: No. NR | 6-0-0 (1.000) | 13 GF 5 GA |
| Hardin Simmons cemented themselves as the team to beat in the west with their victory over Trinity (Texas). This puts them in a great spot to host a first round pod and make it through to the Sweet 16. They cemented those credentials this past week with a resume building overtime win over Christopher Newport. An excellent start to the season for the Cowboys. | ||
| 13. | Franklin and Marshall | Preseason: No. 21 | 4-1-0 (.800) | 10 GF 3 GA |
| Here’s another program that has made every single NCAA tournament since the Eisenhower administration. F&M is the model of consistency and has been a few small breaks from making it to the big time in recent years. Off to another good start the Diplomats have to be favorites to finish atop of one of the most competitive conferences in the nation. | ||
| 14. | Messiah | Preseason: No. 3 | 3-2-1 (.583) | 10 GF 7 GA |
| I will concede that their resume up to this point does not merit this ranking. But this is Messiah we are speaking about. The injury bug has hit this team hard, forcing out several key players. But here’s the reality. Those “backups” forced into early action are guys that were going to end up being AA caliber players by their senior years. This team might take a little longer to come together than a more experienced squad, but I would not want to play them come November. | ||
| 15. | Case Western Reserve | Preseason: No. 4 | 3-1-2 (.667) | 5 GF 3 GA |
| My early season sleeper pick has not quite lived up to the hype, but they have played a tough early season schedule. Three goals conceded in six games is really good, unfortunately five goals scored is not. This team will have plenty of opportunities to pick up quality wins in the UAA but certainly needs to find some guys to put the ball in the back of the net. | ||
Dark Horses
| 16. | Mary Washington | Preseason: No. 26 | 4-1-1 (.750) | |
| 17. | Ohio Wesleyan | Preseason: No. 14 | 3-2-1 (.583) | |
| 18. | Stevens | Preseason: No. 17 | 6-0-0 (1.000) | |
| 19. | Capital | Preseason: No. NR | 3-0-1 (.875) | |
| 20. | Montclair State | Preseason: No. 6 | 5-2-0 (.714) | |
| 21. | Loras | Preseason: No. NR | 6-0-1 (.929) | |
| 22. | Washington and Lee | Preseason: No. NR | 5-1-0 (.833) | |
| 23. | Ithaca | Preseason: No. NR | 5-1-0 (.833) | |
| 24. | Mount Union | Preseason: No. NR | 4-0-1 (.900) | |
| 25. | Rochester | Preseason: No. 10 | 3-2-0 (.600) | |
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