Men's Semifinal 2 Preview

By Christan Shirk

NCAA Division III Men's Soccer - National Semifinal 2

Friday, December 6 — 7:30 pm CT No. 3  Messiah (22-1-1) vs. Williams (15-6-0)

How they reached the Final Four

Messiah: Pool C At-large Berth | 1st Rnd: W9-1 Centenary (NJ) (N) | 2nd Rnd: W3-0 Salisbury (A) | Sweet 16: W2-1 Kenyon (H) | Elite 8: W4-1 Franklin & Marshall (H)

Williams: Pool C At-large Berth | 1st Rnd: W4-0 Elms (H) | 2nd Rnd: W4-1 WNEC (H) | Sweet 16: W2-0 Brandeis (N) | Elite 8: W1-0 Amherst (A)

2013 Statistical Overview

Messiah: 22-1-1 (.938) | 3.44 GSA, 0.58 GAA (+2.86) | Avg. OWP: .585 | Last Ten: 9-0-1

Williams: 15-6-0 (.714) | 1.65 GSA, 0.85 GAA (+0.80) | Avg. OWP: .616 | Last Ten: 7-3-0

Head Coaches

Seniors' 4-year Record (through Nov. 24)

Messiah: 86-3-4 (.946) overall | NCAA's ('10,'11,'12,'13): 13-1-1; Sweet 16 - '10,'12,'13; Elite 8 - '10,'12,'13; Final Four - '10,'12,'13; Champion - '10,'12

Williams: 52-15-9 (.743) overall | NCAA's ('10,'12,'13): 8-2-1; Sweet 16 - '12,'13; Elite 8 - '12,'13; Final Four - '12,'13

Experience

Messiah: With a starting line-up consisting of ten juniors and seniors and two championship runs in the past three years in addition to this year's journey to the Final Four, Messiah has plenty of tournament experience and success to draw from. The junior class, which is among the best classes in the program's storied history and supplies six starters, fell at the first tournament hurdle as freshmen in 2010—the first time the Falcons had gone one-and-out in thirteen years—but have now taken nine straight games as they look to make it back-to-back titles. Given 2010's quick exit, Messiah's starting line-up doesn't have more tournament experience than the other semifinalists, but the aura of success when it matters most heavily favors the Falcons.

Williams: Williams missed the 2011 tournament and of the four seniors on this year's squad, only goalkeeper Peter Morrell was a starter during the Eph's two games in the 2010 tournament. So tournament experience is primary from the year's and last year's Final Four runs. And in both years they have managed to acheive more than was expected which is something they will certainly have to do again (and again) if they are to accomplish anything this weekend. Williams also have the experience of playing in one of the nation's toughest conference, one of the few advantages they would have over Messiah. The starting line-up typically consists of three seniors, four juniors, and four sophomores, very few of which could have been considered regular starters in any prior season.

Players to Watch

Messiah: CF Josh Wood (Sr.) - 21g 5a | LW Jack Thompson (Jr.) - 5g, 17a | AM Jeremy Payne (So.) - 15g, 9a | CB Carter Robbins (Jr.) - 1g, 3a | M Brian Ramirez (Jr.) - 5g, 4a | RB Josh Kremers (Sr.) | RW Mike Kovach (Jr.) - 6g, 9a

Williams: M Matt Muralles (Jr.) - 7g, 3a | F Mohammed Rashid (So.) - 5g, 5a | F Matt Kastner (Sr.) - 5g, 3a | GK Peter Morrell (Sr.) - 0.81 GAA, .823 Sv. Pct. | D Luke Pierce (Jr.) - 1g, 1a | D Chris Conder (Jr.) - 2g, 6a

Analysis

Williams becomes just the fifth team in the last 25 years to reach the Final Four with 6 losses. However, they can be encouraged by the fact that Kean won the championship in 1992 after carrying a 14-6-0 record into the tournament and Ohio Wesleyan did the same in 1998 with a 13-6-0 regular season record. Wheaton (Ill.) is the only team in that time period to reach the Final Four with more losses (seven), and they reached the final before losing in legendary Coach Joe Bean's final game. So it would not be unprecedented for a team like Williams to win their semifinal match, nor to bring home the hardware.

But the odds are still stacked against them and they are the underdogs both Friday and against either potential opponent should they advance to the final. There's a reason why the Ephs have collected six losses along the way. Last season they relied on a strong defense (0.62 GAA) to post a 13-1-3 record entering the tournament and to advance to the Final Four despite only scoring at a 1.60-goal pace. But that +0.98 goal difference looks healthy along side this year's +0.80 goal difference as the defense is not as stingy (0.85 GAA) and the offense has not improved significantly (1.65 GSA). Injuries meant a 6-game late start for their primary goal-scorer Mohammed Rashid which contributed to their offense struggling for the third straight season. On the defensive side of the ball, they haven't completely compensated for the loss of a pair of All-Americans in back Matt Ratajczak and goalkeeper Than Finan. The consequence was a substandard 11-6-0 record entering the tournament.

Nevertheless Williams is back in the Final Four and got here by finally beating NESCAC rival Amherst for the first time in eight tries dating back to 2010. And since their loss to Hamilton on October 30, which put their tournament hopes in jeopardy, they have been finding the net at a higher rate—2.29 GSA since 10/30 versus 1.33 GSA prior—and been more effective at keeping opponents at bay—0.91 GAA prior, 0.71 GAA thereafter. That's significant. So, even if their tournament path has been largely favorable, Williams can't be treated as a 6-loss team at this stage of things. They clearly are playing better the past few weeks.

Messiah, in contrast to Williams, does not hail from a strong conference and so their 53-game win streak in conference matches that was snapped when they tied Lycoming in this year's semifinal is not a means to measure the Falcons' quality. They did play six tournament teams in their non-conference schedule, going 5-1-0 (13 GF, 5 GA). But that all seems secondary to Messiah's tournament track record of unparalleled success over the last 15 years (their shock one-and-done exit in 2011 being the exception that proves the rule) when forming expectations for the Falcons' performance in the tournament and specifically this weekend.

That said, as we look to their 2013 regular season for clues to what to expect from Messiah, what most jumps out is their low (relatively speaking) shutout total of ten which is four to five behind their average over the past 15 years. Isolated, though more frequent, mental lapses are partially to blame. Also, Brandon West has not been as sharp as last year in goal, and his paltry .760 save pct. is more suggestive of a keeper that can cost you a game than win you a game. The difficulty keeping a clean sheet has followed the defending champions into the tournament where they have just one shutout in four games. So William's chances of finding the net against the Falcons may well be greater than their goal-scoring average would suggest or Messiah's 0.58 GAA. But they can't expect to score twice, something Messiah has only allowed once in their last 87 games, and that to their biggest rival, York (Pa.) who knows how to play Messiah better than anyone else. If Williams is to win, a 1-0 scoreline is the most probable.

Regardless of the "hiccups" and perceived weaknesses seen during the regular season, Messiah has done well over the years to save their best performances for the biggest stage. And some of their most impressive and dominating performances have come in the Final Four against some very good teams. Conversely, when they haven't been at their best and even the few times in which they have been outplayed, they have shown the mettle to consistently find a way to come out on top. All that to say that come tournament time, Messiah is the toughest out for opponents. For Williams to overcome that will be an even bigger challenge than getting past Amherst. Speaking of which, the emotion that a team can feed off in a rivalry match and revenge as a motivator will not be in play against Messiah as it was versus Amherst, making it fair to wonder if Williams can get as much out of themselves against the Falcons.

Even though some talk has been made of Messiah's SOG percentage and shot conversion percentage being low, the statistical facts don't support this characterization. First, Messiah's .148 shot percentage is their highest since their explosive 2009 season and not far off their 10-year average, while their .425 SOG percentage is higher than their 10-year average. Moreover, these percentages are not inferior compared to other teams across the board, and specifically compared to the other three semifinalists, Messiah has the highest shot percentage and second highest SOG percentage (Rutgers-Camden leads with a .434 SOG pct.). So you'll need to look elsewhere for a Messiah weakness. Williams, for their part, comes in with the lowest shot pct. (.093) and SOG pct. (.372) in the Final Four, which combined with the lowest shots per game average explains their low goal scoring. But again we really need to look at the November version of Williams which is placing a superb .473 percent of the shots on frame and converting at a more respectable .110 percent clip.

Williams held Amherst to two shots on goal in both the conference final and the Elite 8 match, coming from just 8 and 10 total shots, totals well below the Lord Jeffs' season averages of 19.6 shots and 7.9 SOG per game. But when analyzing the potential for Williams to similarly limit Messiah, there are three factors to consider. First, Messiah plays a different style to Amherst, being committed to prioritizing possession, primarily moving the ball along the deck and being just as willing to be patient as they are interested in trying to utilize their speed. Second, Messiah averaged almost 4 more shots per game and two and half more SOG per game and one more goal per game than Amherst, and approached those season averages in their three tournament games against ranked Salisbury, Kenyon, and ranked Franklin & Marshall. And third, Messiah plays with a much deeper bench than Amherst, meaning it will be a bigger challenge for Williams to match Messiah's energy for 90 minutes than it was to match Amherst's. The final factor being especially interesting given the pair of injury losses Williams suffered in the conference final, shortening their bench even more. Williams and Amherst only used two substitutes each in their Elite 8 tilt, while Messiah used a season low five substitutes in their close-call against Kenyon.  You can be sure that if Messiah opens an early lead or gets up by two goals, closer to ten substitutes will see action.

The fact that Williams also prefers a possession-oriented build-up over Route 1 soccer or a pack-it-in and play-for-the-counter approach improves Messiah's chances. Few team can match Messiah at their game over the full 90 minutes besides York (Pa.), and it is more often the inferior opponent that chooses to pack it in that can occasionally frustrate the Falcons. A notable exception being Kenyon in the third round who found success by congesting the center of field which kept Messiah from finding any rhythm in their passing game through the midfield, minimized the touches and time on the ball that Messiah's pivoting playmakers had, and forced Messiah away from some of their typical lines of attack. On that night Messiah won as much by wearing Kenyon down with their fresh legs and working tirelessly to find the break-through that seemed would elude them, then by playing at the high level they are known for.

But when the Falcons do play to their standard, it takes a special performance from the opponent avoid defeat. Messiah has so many weapons, so much quality, and so much depth and it's just so hard to keep it all in check for 90 minutes, especially if you don't sacrifice your own ability to generate offense by beefing up your defensive efforts. Nineteen Messiah players have scored in 2013 and seven have five or more tallies while eight played have assisted on four or more goals. The bench has produced 21 goals. Williams simply can't match that; can they stop it? If Messiah finds the time and space in midfield to play as they prefer, it's hard to Williams surviving. Could Coach Russo adjust his team's style to one of the strategies that have proven effective at times against the Falcons? Whatever he does, you can be sure that the Ephs will have been prepared in such a way to give them the best chance of realizing the upset. And combining Coach Russo's ability to get this current squad to overachieve with Messiah's penchant for conceding a goal against the run of play, and you simply can't rule out a Williams win. But you also can't rule out a Messiah romp.

Comments or feedback for the author?  Email Christan Shirk.