Men's Semifinal 1 Preview

By D3soccer.com Staff

NCAA Division III Men's Soccer - National Semifinal 1

Friday, December 5 — 11:00 am CT No. 3  Oneonta State (21-0-2) vs. No. 9  Wheaton (Ill.) (21-3-0)

How they reached the Final Four

Oneonta State: SUNYAC Automatic Berth (AQ) | 1st Rnd: Bye | 2nd Rnd: W2-0 Nichols (H) | Sweet 16: W2-1 Frank. & Marsh. (H) | Elite 8: W3-0 Brandeis (H)

Wheaton (Ill.): CCIW Automatic Berth (AQ) | 1st Rnd: Bye | 2nd Rnd: W3-0 UW-Whitewater (H) | Sweet 16: W5-0 Wartburg (H) | Elite 8: W2-1 Trinity (Tx.) (H)

2014 Statistical Overview

Oneonta State: 21-0-2 (.957) | 2.43 GSA, 0.43 GAA (+2.00) | Avg. OWP: .560 | Last Ten: 10-0-0

Wheaton (Ill.): 21-3-0 (.875) | 2.79 GSA, 0.75 GAA (+2.04) | Avg. OWP: .605 | Last Ten: 9-1-0

Head Coaches

Seniors' 4-year Record (through Nov. 24)

Oneonta State: 64-13-10 (.793) overall | NCAA's ('11,'12,'13,'14): 8-2-1; Sweet 16 - '11,'14; Elite 8 - '11,'14; Final Four - '11,'14

Wheaton (Ill.): 66-19-7 (.755) overall | NCAA's ('12,'13','14): 7-2-0; Sweet 16 - '12,'14; Elite 8 - '12,'14; Final Four - '14

Analysis

Oneonta State flies to Kansas City on a roll, coming off a dominant Elite Eight performance in a 3-0 win over Brandeis. The Red Dragons have experience from the 2011 Final Four to draw upon, but the 2014 edition features a much more balanced side. This Oneonta squad has conceded just 10 goals (compared to 22 in 2011), making the defense not only better, but the best defensive unit at the Final Four. The defense, anchored by Jared Van Brunt and Matt Matteo, allows a paltry 3.18 shots on goal per game. Combine that with goalkeeper Vincent Pellegrino’s incredible 90% save percentage, and you have a team that is extremely difficult to score on.

That defense will face its toughest test of the season, as Wheaton (Ill.) is the highest scoring team in Kansas City and brings substantial individual and team firepower into Friday’s game. Wheaton has scored more goals in 2014 than in any season in the past decade, including the 2006 National Runner-Up. And, worryingly for Oneonta, the Thunder get their scoring from all over the field. This is not a team you can shut down by singling out one player, because Wheaton attacks in waves and has numerous players capable of winning a game on their own.

Wheaton’s attacking prowess is almost always on display right from kickoff. The Thunder are notorious for pressing extremely high and playing at a pace you could almost describe as “frenetic.” That means, come 11:00 AM Friday morning, Oneonta cannot afford to come out slowly. Wartburg made that mistake in the Sweet 16 and the Knights found themselves down 2-0 just 15 minutes into a game that was essentially decided at 3-nil before halftime.

Oneonta naturally favors a more controlled game, and the Red Dragons’ measured approach could be the perfect solution to the problems posed by Wheaton’s fast starts. While one could argue Oneonta’s style could put them at a disadvantage if they fall behind, Oneonta already proved its ability to come back by flipping a second-half deficit against No. 10 Franklin and Marshall in the Sweet 16.

This game should have an incredible ebb and flow, with Oneonta building a la Barcelona while Wheaton presses and throws men forward in attack reminiscent of Real Madrid. The Thunder have their own set of “Galacticos” in the Golz brothers, Hollingsworth, Blackman, and even Anthony out of the back (53g, 34a between the five). One danger for Wheaton is getting caught on the counter; their commitment to attack gives Oneonta the opportunity to break quickly and take advantage of any gaps Wheaton may leave at the back. Because of this, the first goal will be crucial on Friday. If Wheaton nabs it, Oneonta will be under serious pressure to get the ball forward and equalize, which plays right into Wheaton’s pressing style. Yet, if Oneonta scores first, the Red Dragons can then stay compact defensively and take advantage of inevitable counter-attacking opportunities.

When forecasting the outcome of Friday’s game, several factors weigh in Wheaton’s favor. The Thunder played a much more difficult schedule, facing five tournament teams outside of conference play. Oneonta, on the other hand, saw just one. Wheaton’s daunting list of opponents will have it ready for the increased level of competition when facing Oneonta. Wheaton should also enjoy an advantage in fan support, as their fans have the shortest drive and are expected to bring students and noise.

Finally, this has all the makings of a storybook ending for Dr. Mike Giuliano, Wheaton’s head coach. Dr. Giuliano will be stepping down from the program after this season for wonderful family reasons, making Friday (and potentially Saturday) his last hurrah. Wheaton rode a similar wave of emotion all the way to the championship game in Joe Bean’s last season (2006), and this team is better than the 2006, so certain intangibles suggest the Thunder having the edge.

Oneonta will have a unique set of advantages heading into Friday’s game. The Red Dragons are accustomed to playing day games, at the same time as the semifinal, whereas Wheaton plays the majority of its games (and all recent ones) at night. In addition, nearly every game Wheaton has played this season was on turf, and no matter how nice the pitch Oneonta will have a distinct edge in comfort level with the grass field.

Once the game begins, another telling characteristic could be depth. Wheaton used just two substitutes in its Elite 8 game against a tough Trinity (Texas) team on the second night of a back-to-back. Oneonta substitutes more liberally, but the key here is the use of freshman phenom Cory Santangelo off the bench. A physically gifted player with a nose and feel for goal, Santangelo comes in to wreak havoc just as defenses start to tire.

A final consideration would be that of history. Wheaton is one of the most storied programs in all of college soccer, with numerous Final Fours and two national championships. The Thunder players came to Wheaton with the goal and expectation of getting the program back to the summit and that motivation will be pivotal against Oneonta State. Conversely, Oneonta has less history and pedigree, especially at the Division III level where they’ve been playing only since 2006 after 16 years in Division I. But Oneonta has quickly made its presence felt at this level having been in this exact same position three seasons ago. While no team would ever admit to being “happy to be there,” the Red Dragons could have been forgiven for such sentiment the first time around, but not this time. They may even still have a bad taste from letting an early lead slip away in San Antonio and will be seeking to make amends at Wheaton’s expense.

Even if it’s too close to pick between two sides clearly capable of advancing and hoisting the trophy on Sunday, Division III soccer and its fans could be the real winners with a match that should be played at a high level showcasing attacking soccer by both sides.

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