Men's Semifinal 2 Preview

By Ryan Harmanis

NCAA Division III Men's Soccer - National Semifinal 2

Friday, December 5 — 1:30 pm CT No. 20  Tufts (14-2-4) vs. No. 15  Ohio Wesleyan (17-4-4)

How they reached the Final Four

Tufts: Pool C At-large Berth | 1st Rnd: W2-1 Dickinson (N) | 2nd Rnd: W2-0 Wheaton (Mass.) (A) | Sweet 16: W2-0 Muhlenberg (A) | Elite 8: W1-0 Messiah (N)

Ohio Wesleyan: Pool C At-large Berth | 1st Rnd: W3-2(ot) PSU-Behrend (N) | 2nd Rnd: T1-1(2ot-pks) Calvin (N) | Sweet 16: W2-0 Kenyon (A) | Elite 8: T2-2(2ot-pks) Chris. Newport (N)

2014 Statistical Overview

Tufts: 14-2-4 (.800) | 2.00 GSA, 0.52 GAA (+1.48) | Avg. OWP: .592 | Last Ten: 8-1-1

Ohio Wesleyan: 17-4-4 (.760) | 2.05 GSA, 0.95 GAA (+1.10) | Avg. OWP: .591 | Last Ten: 6-1-3

Tufts Season Review

Heading into 2014, everyone knew Tufts had the talent to challenge NESCAC powers Amherst and Williams and enter the national conversation. Priority number one was improvement in the final third, as the Jumbos scored just 22 goals in 2013 and 26 in 2012. If Tufts could pair a stronger attack with an always-stingy defense, the sky was the limit.

Tufts opened the season by scoring 18 goals in five straight wins, and a measuring stick game at fourth-ranked Brandeis proved the Jumbos belonged but still ended in a 2-0 loss. So began a four game winless streak that emphasized the need for development in front of goal. From there, the Jumbos rattled off another five wins and clinched the NESCAC regular season championship. However, another letdown appeared as the Jumbos bowed out of the NESCAC tournament in a disappointing loss that once again highlighted an inability to finish.

Receiving a deserved at-large NCAA bid, the Jumbos were one of the most impressive teams in the opening weekend. Tufts went on the road to open the tournament and dispatched Dickinson (2-1) and No. 18 Wheaton (Mass.) (2-0) to truly earn a place in the Sweet 16. There, Tufts took the game to hosts Muhlenberg and scored two goals in the second half, only to be rewarded with a date with No. 1 Messiah, undefeated and fresh off a 6-0 shellacking of No. 25 Cortland State the previous day.

If the Jumbos were in awe of the ten-time champions they didn’t reveal it, and they took the lead almost immediately. A headed clearance fell to junior Jason Kayne, and he thrashed a strike past everyone to give Tufts a shock lead. The defense took over from there, holding Messiah without a shot on goal in the first half. In the second, Tufts gave as good as it got, doubling up the defending champions in shots on goal. The Jumbos were forced to ride their luck down the stretch, but became just the third team to knock off Messiah in the NCAA tournament in the last decade.

Ohio Wesleyan Season Review

Ohio Wesleyan lost over a dozen seniors from last year’s top-ranked regular season team, and it showed during the first half of the season. An opening split at Calvin and Hope masked personnel issues, which were revealed for the (D-III soccer) world to see in an ugly 4-1 home loss to Otterbein. The Battling Bishops would drop another game to Capital, but performances improved and Ohio Wesleyan would nip No. 4 Kenyon to win a seventh straight conference crown.

Kenyon took the grudge match in the conference tournament, leaving Ohio Wesleyan to collect an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament. The two matches with the Lords left Ohio Wesleyan well prepared for a trip to Calvin which was detoured to Hope to avoid the snow. Ohio Wesleyan survived some comical defending to record a 3-2 overtime win against Penn State-Behrend, and the Bishops then came from behind to outlast Calvin in penalty kicks.

Ohio Wesleyan headed into a third matchup with Kenyon confident, but few could have predicted how easily the Bishops would take out an injury-plagued Lords team. The Bishops rode that momentum to a comfortable 2-0 lead against No. 16 Christopher Newport, and with just five minutes to go Wesleyan had all but sealed another trip to the Final Four. Disaster struck in the form of Newport’s devastating attack, as the Captains stormed back to force the game to penalties. Just as before, Ohio Wesleyan kept its cool and senior goalkeeper Collin Beemiller made two saves to propel the Bishops to Kansas City.

Head Coaches

Seniors' 4-year Record (through Nov. 24)

Tufts: 40-15-12 (.687) overall | NCAA's ('12,'14): 4-1-0; Sweet 16 - '14; Elite 8 - '14; Final Four - '14

Ohio Wesleyan: 72-10-12 (.830) overall | NCAA's ('11,'12,'13,'14): 7-2-2; Sweet 16 - '11,'14; Elite 8 - '11,'14; Final Four - '11,'14; Champion - '11

Experience

Tufts: The Jumbos have just four tournament appearances, and they are the only first-time Final Four participant. Tufts made a brief appearance in the 2012 NCAA Tournament, but this is certainly the most inexperienced program still standing. However, eight players took part in the 2012 tournament, including seven who started that day. And at this point, the Jumbos have already played four tournament games, all away from home, including the pressure that comes with facing Messiah. Tufts also plays in the pressure cooker that is the NESCAC, so big games are nothing new.

Ohio Wesleyan: Ohio Wesleyan is in its 10th straight NCAA tournament, and in the last five years has reached three Elite 8s and two Final Fours. Despite both historical and recent success, only senior Colton Bloecher contributed to the 2011 championship team, and the rest of the squad was winless in NCAA play until this year. Regardless, Ohio Wesleyan is the more experienced tournament team, has the only Final Four veteran, and boasts the more experienced coach.

Players to Watch

Tufts: M Connor Brown (Jr.) – Leading scorer (6g, 6a) | F Maxime Hoppenot (Sr.) – 3x First-Team All-NESCAC (3g, 2a) | F Gus Santos (Sr.) – 3x All-NESCAC (7g, 2a) | D Sam Williams (Sr.) – First-Team All-NESCAC (4g, 1a) | M Jason Kayne (Jr.) – Game-winner vs. Messiah (6g, 5a) | GK Scott Greenwood (So.) – 10 SO, 10 GA

Ohio Wesleyan: Colton Bloecher (Sr.) – First-Team All-American (18g, 4a) | Brian Schaefer (Jr.) – First-Team All-NCAC (11g, 5a) | Evan Lee (Jr.) – Forward-turned-centerback (4g, 3a) | Lonnie Barnes (Jr.) – Midfield anchor (2g, 3a) | Kyle Baum (So.) – (4g, 4a) | Drew Pang (Sr.) – First-Team All NCAC (2g, 0a)

Analysis

Tufts arrives in Kansas City on the back of the best tournament performance by any team in 2014, having knocked out two-time defending champion Messiah without resorting to a “park the bus” strategy. The Jumbos’ disciplined approach in that game emphasized a commitment to team defending, which is reflected in Tufts’ defensive record. Senior co-captain Sam Williams anchors a back four that has surrendered just 3.25 shots on goal per game in the NCAA Tournament.

Defense has long been the Jumbos calling card, as Tufts has conceded just 11 goals per season for the past three years. This edition, however, is the first that offers a true threat going forward. Tufts brings a balanced attack, with eight different players scoring at least three goals so far. Yet scoring can still be problematic, as the Jumbos have the lowest-scoring offense (42 total goals) at the Final Four.

Tufts defense will be tested by an Ohio Wesleyan offense that has hit its stride. Although the Battling Bishops score at a clip just marginally better than Tufts, they has been averaging a threatening 2.5 goals per game over the past month. The Bishops defense has also improved, and it can be spectacular, shutting down high-flying Christopher Newport against a 40+ MPH wind that made clearing impossible.

Yet one glaring issue still plagues Ohio Wesleyan: no matter how well the defense plays, they seem to gift their opponents a few opportunities or goals every single game. It happened against Kenyon in the conference tournament, against Penn State-Behrend (twice) in the opening round, against Calvin, and most recently against Christopher Newport. At some point, Ohio Wesleyan will either stop making enormous mistakes or pay for them with a tournament exit.

That tendency to ship soft goals gives Tufts the advantage, because the Jumbos have the defense and mentality to hold a lead. Further, Tufts should be as prepared as it is possible to be. Ohio Wesleyan plays a distinct style that few teams are used to seeing. Conveniently Tufts just played one of the few D-III teams that plays a similar style, and Tufts controlled a Messiah team that was a more efficient version of Ohio Wesleyan. A similar effort Friday will lead to another win for the Jumbos.

What, or rather who, Tufts may struggle with is Bishop senior All-American Colton Bloecher. In four NCAA games, Bloecher has been the most dangerous player on the field, scoring three goals and creating two more. He occupies the entire defense, leaving gaps for his attacking teammates in one-on-one situations.

On the bench, Jay Martin has coached in more Final Four games than Tufts has played in its NCAA history. Martin knows how to win one-off matches, and Ohio Wesleyan won’t fall victim to the distractions of the Final Four. Ohio Wesleyan also plays its best against its toughest opponents, and when teams play the Bishops straight up, as Tufts will surely do, they tend to come out on top.

However, Tufts has been better and more consistent than Ohio Wesleyan throughout the season, outshooting every opponent save one (Connecticut College, in a game Tufts won 3-1). And while the Jumbos should expect to carry the play, they also have the stout defending and individual attackers to punish the Bishops on the break. Maxime Hoppenot and Gus Santos have been terrorizing the NESCAC for years, and even then Tufts’ two leading scorers still come from midfield.

The statistics suggest Ohio Wesleyan is the weakest Final Four team, but it is also by far the most improved team over the past few weeks. Many starters had almost no role until this season, but the Bishops are in a rhythm and have outplayed three straight Top-15 teams. Tufts poses a different type of threat, coupling a defense on par with Kenyon’s but with more attacking options going forward.

Ultimately, both sides of the ball should be fascinating to watch. Tufts’ powerful defense, led by Sam Williams, will try to cut off service to Bloecher and Ohio Wesleyan’s array of attacking talent. At the other end, Connor Brown and Jason Kayne will drive Tufts midfield and contribute to the attack, working with Hoppenot and Santos to form a four-star offense. At the end of the game, the team that makes the fewest mistakes and provides that best moments of quality – just like Kayne’s strike to beat Messiah – will advance to Saturday’s championship game.

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