Women's Semifinal 2 Preview

By D3soccer.com Contributor

NCAA Division III Women's Soccer - National Semifinal 2

Friday, December 6 — 1:45 pm ET No. 8  Pomona-Pitzer (20-1-2) vs. No. 2  William Smith (20-1-1)

How they reached the Final Four

2019 Statistical Overview

Head Coaches

Seniors' 4-year Record (through Nov. 24)

Players to Watch

Pomona-Pitzer: #8 M Bria VarnBuhler (Sr.) – 21g, 3a, 9gwg (SCIAC POY, 2x 1st team, All-Region 1st team) | #10 M Hannah Mandell (Fr.) – 11g, 1a, 2gwg(SCIAC NewOY, 1st team, All-Region 2nd team) | #22 M Emily Tomz 1,3 (SCIAC 1st team, All-Region 2nd team) | #27 D Brianna Lau (Sr.) – 2g,5a (SCIAC 1st team, All-Region 1st team) | #00 GK Isa Berardo (Sr.) – 0.30 GAA, .912 Sv% (SCIAC 1st team, All-Region 1st team)

William Smith: #23 Maialen Martinez (Jr.) – 2g, 3a, 1gwg (LL DefPoY, 1st team, All-Region 1st team) | #20 M Elizabeth Moore (Sr.) – 3g, 1a, 3gwg (LL 1st team), All-Region 1st team | #22 D Emilie Sauvayre (Sr.) – 2g, 4a, 1gwg (LL 1st team, All-Region 1st team) | #7 M Amanda Adams (Jr.) – 2g, 5a, 1gwg (LL 2nd team, All-Region 1st team)

Tournament Re-Matches

This will be the first ever meeting and there have been no common opponents in at least the last four years.

Analysis

Our contributor in the other women’s semifinal preview leads off their analysis, “On paper, this game shouldn’t be close …”. This matchup appears to be the polar opposite; on paper, this game couldn’t be closer. Looking at their resumes, every data point indicates near-absolute parity with no statistically significant differences. Winning percentage GSA, GAA, SoS, Top 25 marks, and current form are equal for all practical purposes.

Both sides bring solid, admirable, but not overwhelming offenses. With goals per game of 2.74 for Pomona-Pitzer, 2.32 for William Smith, the teams are ranked 43rd and 83rd nationally, impressive considering they both have top ten strength of schedules. Backing out the three top blowouts from each, against more balanced competition the Sagehens score 2.15 GPG versus 2.00 by the Herons. The Sagehens attack revolves around midfielder and SCIAC Athlete of the Year Bria Van Buhler who has 21 goals on the year. Their top three goal scorers account for 64% of Pomona-Pitzer’s goals. The Herons scoring is more diversified. They are led by Sheila McQuillen with nine markers, while the top three contributed 19 of 48 or 40%. William Smith’s scoring comes throughout the roster with 18 different Herons having hit the back of the net.

In terms of generating shots, although neither side is in the top ranks of D-III teams, both are respectably in the top quartile in terms of shots per game. The Sagehens attack is more efficient than the Herons: 57.2% of their shots are frame, and more effective as 14.4% of their shots hit the back of the net. Both measures are well above the all D-III averages of 52.1% and 12.5%. Conversely, the Herons are below average at 48.0% on target.

Defensively both are stellar. They boast the nation’s second (Pomona-Pitzer) and third-ranked (William Smith) defenses measured by Goals Allowed and GAA. Pomona-Pitzer has pitched an insanely good 20 shutouts in 23 matches with only five total goals conceded. Two were interesting anomalies being tallied early in what turned out to be blowouts … did they come out taking their opponent too lightly? The other three came on October 16 in the Sagehens only loss, 1-3, to Cal Lutheran with the third goal coming on a late counter while the Sagehens were pressing to equalize. William Smith has 17 shutouts in their 22 contests yielding six goals total, and like Pomona-Pitzer only conceding multiple goals once (last weekend in their 3-2 Sweet 16 victory over Stevens).

The statistics referenced in this paragraph do not include the NCAA tournament as those through the conference tournaments were readily available in our D3soccer.com databases. Nothing in the first two weeks of the tournament would change the overall picture. On the year, the Heron defense anchored by Liberty League Defensive Player of the Year, Maialen Martinez, allowed a mere 80 shots, second only to TCNJ’s 64 and substantially below the D-III average of 260. However, the Sagehens were not far behind, allowing 115 shots, eighth nationally. Shot conversion percentage (Goals / Shots) are also top ten for both at 4.3% and 5.0% for Pomona-Pitzer and William Smith, respectively.

One potentially interesting dichotomy: 41% of William Smith’s opponents' shots are on target while at 54% Pomona-Pitzer’s opponents are marginally above the national average of 52%. Not only is the Heron defense stingier in terms of shots allowed, but a meaningful percentage is less dangerous. One other nugget of the six goals the Herons have conceded five were unassisted. For D-III as a whole, two of every three goals have helpers. A small sample, so difficult to draw a conclusion but perhaps it takes a moment of individual brilliance to breach the Heron defense. That was certainly the case in the Stevens match.

While the deep dive analysis revealed a slightly more potent Sagehens offense, defensively, the stats favor Herons marginally. Most importantly, though, the advantages, in either case, are so slight that they don’t point to a meaningful upper hand to either team. Let’s consider some intangibles to see if something might favor one or the other. (1) After digging deeper into the top-line stats, one takeaway is that William Smith may be more dangerous offensively with a more diverse attack, while the Pomona-Pitzer defense seems to be nearly impenetrable. (2) Although depth would be more of a factor is this were the Final, last week in the most pressure-packed games of their season, both teams were able to go confidently to their benches. (3) By nearly any reasonable standard, Coach Scanlon has a lengthy and compelling resume of success, especially over the last four seasons. But Coach Wilber is a legend, not a reasonable standard. She is the only coach in William Smith's program history and has delivered consistent high-level success over four decades. (4)The Herons have a clear edge in NCAA experience. Their seniors have reached the “Big Dance” all four years and advanced past the first weekend each time reaching the Elite 8 three of four. As first-years, the Sagehen seniors went sent home by Chicago in penalty kick shootout. This season is the first visit to the tournament for the rest of the Sagehen roster. (5) For the first time since Puget Sound in 2004, a West coast women’s team has advanced to Final Four. With only two days to acclimate, the Sagehens will be facing at 10:45 am start. And while 600 miles isn’t just around the block, there is likely to be more Heron fan support in Greensboro. (6)The Heron’s second-half comeback from a 0-2 deficit to Stevens in the Sweet 16 demonstrated an impressive mindset for sure, while the Sagehens defeating a top-level Chicago Maroons side twice in the same year despite travelling halfway across the county also displayed the same.

So, what’s the prognostication? Well, it isn’t going to be a high scoring affair, that seems certain. A nil-nil draw settled by kicks from the mark appears the most likely outcome. The first goal, if there is one, probably wins as it is quite likely to be the only one. I think it’s a coin toss; I can’t find a meaningful edge for either side. If I’m forced to pick a winner, I give the Herons have an edge on intangibles.

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