Women's Sectional Previews: Midwest

By Jim Matson

Third Round - Friday

Quarterfinals - Saturday

Sectional Final, 5:00 pm CT

How they reached the Sweet 16

2019 Statistical Overview

Wheaton (Ill.) Season Review

Wheaton starts Sectional play with a record of 18-1-2, ranked No. 7 in the D3Soccer.com Top 25. The Thunder won the CCIW regular season championship but made the NCAA Tournament as a Pool C at-large qualifier after falling in the CCIW conference tournament in penalties with Augustana. Wheaton hosted the opening round of the Tournament, facing the St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference champ Webster (15-4-1). The Thunder defeated the Gorloks 3-0, lining up a contest with North Coast Athletic Conference champ Wooster (14-2-4). Wooster is a defense-minded squad, winning 13 of their 14 matches via shutout. The Thunder held off a second half push by Wooster to win 1-0 and advance to their fourth straight appearance in the Sweet 16.

Wheaton continues their tradition of running a strong defense with quick attacks out of the midfield. With a Strength of Schedule (SoS) rating of .627, the Thunder is ranked 8th in the nation in Goals-Against Average (.388), 5th in Save Percentage (.900), and had 12 shutout wins, 14th nationally. The defense has allowed 7.8 shots per game, with a SOG-per-game allowed average of just 2.6. The offensive power is spread across the team; four players have five goals or more, and 13 players with credited assists. The Thunder play a disciplined style, and while not scoring as profusely as in seasons past, this team controls the ball, racking up 136 corners to their opponent’s 60.

The Thunder started the season at 6-0-0, moving up to No. 8 in our Top 25 poll before falling at then-No. 6 Washington U. 2-1 in two overtimes. After a 3-0 win against Loras College, Wheaton drew 1-1 with one of their strongest regional rivals, then No. 11 Chicago. The Thunder then went on a 9-0-0 run to end the regular season, allowing only three goals. Wheaton is 3-1-1 against Tournament teams: No. 3 Washington U., No. 12 Chicago, No. 23 Ohio Northern, Illinois Wesleyan (receiving votes), and the College of Wooster (receiving votes).

St. Thomas Season Review

St. Thomas comes into the weekend at No. 22 nationally, sporting a 17-2-3 record. The Tommies are the champion and NCAA automatic qualifier of the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (MIAC). The Tommies were a host for the first round of the tournament, the first time in 17 seasons that they’ve hosted an NCAA post-season match, facing the Midwest Conference (MWC) champion Monmouth (Ill.). This was Monmouth’s first ever appearance in the NCAA Tournament. The Tommies controlled the match throughout and advanced with a 1-0 win against the Scots. Their next opponent was the College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin (CCIW) champ Illinois Wesleyan, a Tournament regular. In spite of being outshot in the match, the Tommies’ defense stood strong, ending the Titan’s season with a 1-0 victory.

St. Thomas sports a defensive-minded squad with strong goalkeeping. Their defense is ranked nationally in several categories: 10th in Goals-Against Average (.400) and Save Percentage (.892), and they’ve shutout their opponents 14 times, good for 19th nationally. The Tommies defensive strategy limits their opponents’ chances, allowing only 7.4 shots-per-game, and nine goals on the season. On the offensive side of the pitch, although the Tommies are not included in top 20 numbers nationally, they have done enough to outscore their foes. St. Thomas has averaged 1.95 goals per game, putting up almost 16 shots per game, and four players have 15 points or more on the season. In most cases, the Tommies are winning by one-goal margins so a balance of their offensive push and defensive stinginess is key for success in the post-season.

The Tommies started the season with four straight wins, including a 1-0 overtime victory over then No. 11 Washington U., putting them at No. 15 in the Top 25. The following week, they moved up to No. 13. After dropping a few tough matches to Illinois Wesleyan 2-1, and Augsburg 1-0, St. Thomas went on an 11-0-2 run to finish the season, reappearing in the D3Soccer.com Top 25 on November 5th at No. 24. St. Thomas has played four Tournament participants to a 4-1-1 record: No. 3 Washington U., Illinois Wesleyan (receiving votes), No. 24 Wartburg, and UW-Stevens Point.

Ohio Northern Season Review

The Polar Bears of Ohio Northern come into the Sectional weekend at No. 23 in our Top 25 poll at 18-2-3. They earned a spot in the Tournament as the champion and automatic qualifier of the Ohio Athletic Conference (OAC) and served as host for the first round. On Saturday, the Polar Bears set up for a match against Grove City, winners of the Presidents Athletic Conference (PrAC). The Polar Bears shutout the Wolverines 2-0, holding the edge in shots and time of possession. Then on Sunday, ONU fought hard against Scranton, outlasting the Landmark Conference champs in penalties (0-0, 4-2).

Ohio Northern plays with a very good balance of offensive and defensive capabilities. While most of their stats rank outside of top 20 results nationally, they are solid across the board, and this while playing against strong competition. The Polar Bears offense averages 2.43 goals per game, put up an average of 18.6 shots per game, and do rank 22nd nationally with 46 total assists. The defense has limited ONU opponents to slightly more than eight shots per game, with only 3.4 per game on frame resulting in a very respectable Goal-Against Average of .63. With this combination of offensive and defensive prowess, the Polar Bears have put together a winning season, and have experienced a slate of solid, nationally ranked opponents.

Ohio Northern had a tough start to the 2019 season. After going 2-0-0 including an impressive 1-0 defeat of Carnegie Mellon, the Polar Bears went 2-2-2 against Hope (1-1 draw), then-No. 3 Wheaton (Ill.) (2-1 loss), Calvin (3-1 win), and then-No. 24 Case Western Reserve (3-1 loss). Then as has been a habit with most of the teams in the Tournament, the ONU finished the season on an up-swing, going 11-0-0 and out-scoring their opponents 30-5. Then came the OAC Tournament and another two hard-fought victories, 1-0 against John Carroll, and 2-1 in double overtime against then-No. 22 Otterbein. The Polar Bears are 2-2-1 against teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Carnegie Mellon Season Review

Carnegie Mellon advances into the NCAA Sectionals at 13-5-1 and unranked this entire season, although they did receive votes in the Top 25 for four weeks. Due to their strong schedule, one of the toughest nationally, and their .650 SoS, the Tartans were picked as an at-large qualifier from the University Athletic Association (UAA). The UAA has no conference tournament, so the regular season winner, Washington U., grabbed the AQ. Yet the Tartans earned the bid and were given the right to host. They cruised past their first opponent Cairn, Colonial States Athletic Conference (CSAS), 7-0, and then faced Swarthmore, an at-large team out of the Centennial Conference. The Tartans moved on with a 1-0 victory over the Garnet.

With one of the highest SoS numbers this season, it’s clear that Carnegie Mellon has had to play well on both sides of the ball. The Tartans are outside of the top 20 stats leaders nationally in most categories, yet they’ve earned the right be playing this weekend based on hard work against some of the best teams in the country. Carnegie Mellon has averaged 2.53 Goals per Game this season, with a Goals-Against Average of .82. So, this team doesn’t dominate, but their ability to put up shots and score goals was on display this past weekend. Defensively, the Tartans have faced high scoring teams in the UAA and have proven their ability to keep opponents off the board. They have nine shutouts on the season and under pressure, can win, as they are 2-0-1 in overtime matches. Powerful opponents build strength and this Tartan team should not be underestimated.

As noted previously, Carnegie Mellon was unranked all season. They did receive votes at times throughout the season, but a few losses here and there kept them off the board. The Tartans have played more than a few Top 25 teams, and perhaps more than anyone in the Tournament: Messiah, Washington U., Chicago, Emory, Case Western Reserve, Ohio Northern, Rochester, and Swarthmore, all teams that have at one point been in our Top 25 during the season. The Tartans are 4-5-0 against Tournament teams this season.

Head Coaches

Seniors' 4-year Record (through Nov. 17)

Players to Watch

Wheaton (Ill.): #4 D Sarah Tomich (Jr.) – 2g (CCIW 2x DefPOY, 2x 1st team) | #16 M Sara Bakke (So.) – 5g, 12a, 1gwg (CCIW 1st team) | #3 M Carney Blake (Jr.) – 4g, 1a, 2gwg (CCIW 1st team) | D Izzy McNally (Jr.) – 3a (CCIW 2nd team) | GK Lauren Ketchum (So.) – 0.43 GAA, .887 Sv% (CCIW 2nd team)

St. Thomas: #7 M Kate Heimer (Jr.) – 4g, 11a, 1gwg (MIAC 2x 1st team) | #28 F Tessa Trettel (Jr.) – 8g, 1a, 4gwg (MIAC 1st team) | #5 M Paige Cater (Jr.) – 6g, 8a, 3gwg (MIAC 1st team) | #10 M Ellie Eskierka (Jr.) – 3g, 1a, 1gwg (MIAC 1st team)

Ohio Northern: #0 GK Meagan Grierson (Sr.) – 0.63 GAA, .810 Sv% (OAC 4x GKOY, 1st team) | #33 F Jenna Fuller (Jr.) – 20g, 3a, 10gwg (OAC ForOY, 2x 1st team) | #27 D Sydney Leshnak (Jr.) – 3g, 4a (OAC 2x DefOY, 1st team) | #22 F Rose Nienaber (Sr.) – 9g, 8a, 4gwg (OAC 2x 1st team) | #2 M Haley Moses (Sr.) – 3g, 3a, 1gwg (OAC 2x 1st team)

Carnegie Mellon: #20 F Alex Adams (Fr.) – 13g, 6a, 7gwg (UAA 1st team) | #44 D Rachel Legg (Fr.) – 1g (UAA 2nd team) | #10 F Helena Spencer (Fr.) – 6g, 1a, 1gwg (UAA Hon. Men.) | #16 M Taylor Cammarata (Jr.) – 4g, 2a, 1gwg (UAA Hon. Men.)

Tournament Re-Matches

None of these teams have ever competed against each other in the tournament. Wheaton (Ill.) lost to Carnegie-Mellon 0-1 in an early regular season match in 2015; their only meeting. The Thunder are 7-1-0 all-time against the St. Thomas Tommies; with three contests this decade, all wins by a 2-0 score line in 2011, 2013 and last year.

This year Ohio Northern defeated Carnegie-Mellon 1-0 opening weekend in Pittsburgh but fell 1-2 to Wheaton (Ill) a week later at home in the first ever match between these teams. The Polar Bear and Tartan upperclassmen also played to a nil-nil draw in 2017. The Tommies, Polar Bears and Tartans have never played.

Why they will advance to the Final Four

Wheaton (Ill.): The Thunder are hungry to return to the Final Four and will step up their goal-scoring prowess to defeat a tough Tommies squad. The goals won’t be plentiful, as the halftime score will be 0-0. But in the second half a triad of goals, two from set plays, will overwhelm the Tommies, who won’t be able to respond against a tested Wheaton defense. The 3-1 score will hold up and send Wheaton to Saturday’s date with ONU or CMU. If its Ohio Northern, the Thunder will have to fight back as they did earlier in the season, using corner kicks to tie the match at halftime. Wheaton’s experience will find ways to double the Polar Bear’s shot output, landing two of those for a 3-1 score…again. If the Thunder faces the Tartans, the match will be hard fought defensively, but after 60 minutes, Wheaton will break through with one, then two goals as Carnegie Mellon tries to counter-attack and leaves themselves vulnerable. The 2-0 score sends the Thunder back to the Final Four.

St. Thomas: The Tommies know what they’ll be facing when they challenge Wheaton on Friday. After all, they have already played Washington U., and Illinois Wesleyan, two squads who played Wheaton close in their matches. Confidence will be high, and that confidence will result in a surprising 2-0 halftime lead, which will they will not relinquish. Wheaton will push, but the Tommies stingy defense will keep the Thunder to one goal and will deliver the win. The following match against Carnegie Mellon will challenge the Tommies to rethink their strategy. A breakout offense will connect on a few set plays, putting the Tartans on their heels and forcing them into attack mode, where they will struggle against a disciplined Tommie defense. Should it be a match against Ohio Northern, the match will go wide open early as both teams will press hard for the chance to advance. St. Thomas has edged out victories more than once this season and they’ll do the same this time with a 3-2 OT win, punching their ticket to Greensboro.

Ohio Northern: The Polar Bears have earned their spot by fighting hard consistently throughout their season. They have enough playing time against ranked teams that they’ll know better how to build on early goals and hold leads. Their scoring leader Jenna Fuller will help in this regard, pushing hard against the Tartan defense, grabbing two first half goals to help the Polar Bears advance 3-1. If ONU faces Wheaton on Saturday, they’ll be hungry to avenge their earlier 2-1 loss, extending the Thunder to 110 minutes and advancing on PKs with heroics from their star keeper. If it’s the Tommies, the Polar Bears will use their first round experience to keep St. Thomas off the board in the first half, but will have to lean on their back line to preserve the 1-0 shutout in regulation, and off to North Carolina they’ll go.

Carnegie Mellon: The Tartans will not shy away from strong competition and thus are confident in their ability to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the Tourney. Their UAA competition has trained them well. The Tartans were topped by Ohio Northern back in early September, 1-0, in spite of outshooting the Polar Bears 15-4. This time around, the Tartans will land two or more of their shots-on-goal, and then hold off an anxious Polar Bear side for the 2-0 victory. Facing a scrappy Tommies squad from Minnesota, the Tartans will have to score in the first half to open up opportunities, and then hold off the press for the 1-0 victory. If it’s a confident Wheaton side that advances, the Tartans won’t be deterred. Their hard-fought experience will give them the chance to squeeze in a goal off a set play in the first half, and then their defense will clamp down on a low scoring Wheaton team, sending the match into overtime after a late Thunder goal, and their consistent controlled play will give them the golden goal and the trip to the Final Four.

Comments or feedback for the author?  E-mail Jim Matson.