October 15, 2014
The rankings that count are coming next week
Next Wednesday, October 22, the NCAA Division III men’s
and women’s soccer committees will release the first of their
three weekly regional rankings leading up to “selection
Sunday” and the Monday release of the tournament field and
brackets. These rankings are based on the same primary and
secondary criteria that will be used for awarding at-large
tournament berths. But before getting into that, a more general
introduction to the rankings is in order for those new to D-III
soccer or those still not clear on the distinction and significance
of the different rankings that exist.
By this point in the season, even new fans should be aware of the NSCAA regional and national rankings and the D3soccer.com national Top 25, but some might be confused when hearing about the NCAA regional rankings and have questions such as: Are these yet other rankings? Why haven't I seen these rankings yet this season? Are they important? Do they matter? Adding to the potential confusion, the NCAA includes the NSCAA (note the “S”) rankings on their website even though they are not NCAA rankings but rather rankings done by the National Soccer Coaches Association of America. You may have heard some fans chide that “the NSCAA and D3soccer.com rankings don't mean anything; it's the NCAA rankings that matter.” And they are right in that the NSCAA and D3soccer.com rankings do not play any part in the process of selecting teams for the NCAA championship tournaments; the NCAA's own rankings do as will be explained below.
However, I think it’s unfair to say the NSCAA and D3soccer.com rankings don't mean anything. They are useful for acknowledging the most successful teams and for fans to discover what schools outside their conference and their region are having great seasons. If done well, they can also give fans a feel for the relative strength of the teams they have seen when put in the national context. That is, they can be educational and informative. But equally they have entertainment value and can spark conversation and debate among fans. D-I basketball fans can banter and argue over the rankings while knowing they do not decide tournament berths, and there's no reason D-III soccer fans shouldn’t as well. Those who pooh-pooh these rankings as meaningless and chose to ignore them (or do they just feign?) miss the point and miss the fun.
That said, it is the NCAA regional rankings that are a critical piece of the pre-tournament puzzle, so let’s have a quick look at how they work and why they matter.
NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS
The NCAA regional rankings are done by the same national and regional committees which will make the at-large selections for the men's and women's NCAA tournaments and the rankings are done by applying the same criteria which is used for making the at-large selections. The rankings are released following the fourth last, third last, and second last weeks prior to the tournament selections being made. Therefore, by design, these rankings are a direct foreshadowing of the at-large selections providing a certain level of transparency to the at-large selection process. It is for this reason that these rankings are so important and meaningful.
All information about the regional rankings is found in the Division III Soccer Pre-Championship Manual. Much of what follows highlights, summarizes, or quotes the manual.
Ranking Committees
The NCAA regional rankings are done by the eight-member NCAA Division III Men's and Women's Soccer Committees which are each composed of the chairs of their respective regional advisory committees. The Regional Advisory Committees assist the national committee in evaluating teams. These are the same national and regional committees which will make the Pool B and Pool C at-large selections for the men's and women's NCAA tournaments. The members of these committees can be found on pages 9-13 of the Pre-Championship Manual.
Release Dates
As per the Pre-Championship Manual (pgs. 13 and 18), the rankings will be released on the following dates which correspond to the last three Wednesdays prior to the tournament selections being made:
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• Wednesday, October 22 • Wednesday, October 29 • Wednesday, November 5 |
Like the NSCAA and D3Soccer.com rankings, they are based on results through the Sunday prior to their release.
Where to find the Rankings
The rankings are posted by the NCAA on their Division III men's and women's soccer webpages under "Rankings" where you must select the "Regional Rankings" option from the pull-down menu. They are also conveniently available here on our site by selecting “Regional Rankings” from the “News” pull-down menu above or by clicking on the following links:
Size of the Rankings
The number of teams ranked differs from region to region and from men to women based on the number of eligible teams in each region. The top 15 percent of eligible teams (or a minimum of four) are ranked by the committees. As per the Pre-Championship Manual (pg. 18), the number of teams to be ranked in 2013 is as follows:
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Men's Rankings Central Region—6 East Region—7 Great Lakes Region—8 Mid-Atlantic Region—8 New England Region—11 North Region—7 South Atlantic Region—7 West Region—6 |
Women's Rankings Central Region—6 East Region—7 Great Lakes Region—8 Mid-Atlantic Region—9 New England Region—12 North Region—8 South Atlantic Region—9 West Region—6 |
The regional alignments, school sponsorship, and eligibility by region can be found in Appendices B and C (“Men's Sponsorship” and "Women's Sponsorship, respectively) of the Pre-Championship Manual(pgs. 28-44).
Ranking Criteria
The rankings are done by applying the same criteria which is used for making the at-large tournament selections. The at-large selection criteria are found in Section 2.4 of the Pre-Championship Manual (pg. 21). The criteria is divided between primary and secondary criteria, the latter only being considered if the former does not enable a distinction to be made between schools. The criteria underwent a significant change prior to last season (2013)when the in-region/out-of-region distinction was abandoned. Previously only games versus "in-region" opponents were consider as part of the primary criteria with secondary criteria considering out-of-region and non-Division III competition. Now, primary criteria considers all Division III opponents while results versus non-Division III opponents (NAIA, NCCAA, Division II, Division I) are considered secondary criteria.
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Primary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
Secondary Criteria (not listed in priority order)
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Strength-of-Schedule
The Strength-of-Schedule used by the Division III soccer committees is based on Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) and Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP) with home and away multipliers being applied for men’s soccer but not for women's soccer. For men's schedules, a multiplier of 0.85 is applied for home games and 1.25 for away games. Neutral site games are assumed to be unfactored. An explanation with an example of these calculations is found in Appendix D (pg. 45) of the Pre-Championship Manual.
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Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP): The average of opponents'
winning percentages versus D-III competition excluding the
results against the team in question. Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP): The average of the OWP's of all opponents. Strength-of-Schedule (SOS): The weighted
OWP-OOWP, never specified but deduced to be |
Regional Data Sheets
Along with the rankings, data sheets for each region are made available. These data sheets, which include all teams in each region, provide some (but not all) of the data that was considered by the ranking committee. The following data is listed: record and winning percentage against Division III opponents, results versus ranked Division III opponents, Division III SOS (all primary criteria), and non-Division III winning percentage (secondary criteria). These sheets allow one a look at the numbers the committees had in front of them and therefore insight into why some teams are ranked and others not. The NCAA provides links to this data below the rankings. Direct links to the latest released data sheets are given below:
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Men's Data Sheets |
Women's Data Sheets |
The data sheets can also be accessed by clicking the links on our regional rankings pages.
Definition of In-Region Competition [revised for 2014]
Starting last season (2013), the in-region/out-of-region distinction no longer matters for ranking and at-large selection criteria. However, the NCAA has not removed all encouragement to minimize travel and missed class time as teams are still required to play a minimum of 70 percent of their games against in-region Division III opponents to simply be eligible for at-large tournament selection. So the distinction could still be important for teams that like to fill their non-conference schedule with a good number of opponents from outside their region. But given how broadly in-region competition is defined on page 20 of the Pre-Championship Manual to include much more than just other teams from your defined region (e.g. New England, East, Mid-Atlantic, etc.), this requirement isn't difficult to meet. In fact, it has become even easier starting with the current 2014 season because the in-region radius has been extended from 200 miles to 500 miles.
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An opponent is considered in-region if any one of the following criteria is met:
Region 1- Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont Region 2 - New York, Pennsylvania Region 3- Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia Region 4- Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming
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"Secret" Final Rankings
As part of the at-large tournament selection process, the committees do final rankings that include the results from the final week prior to the tournament, usually the completion of conference tournaments. These rankings are not released, so one can only guess at how the final week's results may have prompted changes in the ranking of teams after the third of the scheduled rankings.
FORESHADOWING THE AT-LARGE SELECTIONS:
SOME COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS
• Since these rankings are done by the same committees that make the at-large selections, using the same criteria as for at-large selections, they (as intended) have in the past very accurately foreshadowed the eventual at-large selections. Since their inception in 2003, there has only been one year (2010) in which there was more than one real head-scratcher on the men's side with many years having none.
• As such, a team that is not ranked has virtually no shot at a Pool C berth. You can get your hopes up, but it's just not going to happen if history is any guide. In the past seven years (2007-2013) no men's team that was unranked in the third weekly rankings (those released the Wednesday before the selections) got selected for the post-season tournament. In 2005 and 2006 it happened once each year, and at least in one of those cases the results of the final week easily explained the unranked team having improved their standing.
• There will probably be twice as many Pool C candidates in the rankings as available berths. For example, last year there were 43 Pool C teams in the final rankings but only 19 Pool C berths available. In 2012 the ratio was 38/20 and in 2011, 40/19. So it isn't good enough to simply be ranked to make the NCAA tournament as most regions will have two to three ranked teams not selected. Even the strongest regions do not have all their ranked teams selected. A team typically needs to be in the top half of their regional rankings to be a safe bet for an at-large berth in the tournament.
• History indicates that the ranking of teams changes little in that last week (between the third weekly rankings and Selection Sunday). That is, rarely does a lower ranked team in the third weekly rankings get selected ahead of a higher ranked team. For example, there was only one instance of this last year out of the twenty men's at-large selections. And that makes sense as one week only represents about 10% of the total schedule. There has also been a sense that conference tournament results do not have extra weighting because they are the most recent results nor because they may be considered "big" games, which is consistent with the established selection criteria. So do not expect big jumps or falls due to the final week's results.
• Comparison of the regional data sheets with the rankings has shown in the past that strength of schedule is very important. The other thing that is important is record against ranked teams. If you do not understand why one team isn't ranked and another team is, or why one team is ranked higher than another, it probably is related to S-O-S and results against ranked teams.
Comments or feedback for the author? Email Christan Shirk.
